Data expert analyzes Tatsuya Imai: Combining traits of Scherzer and Castillo

Tatsuya Imai, the top left-handed pitcher for the NPB’s Saitama Seibu Lions, is pursuing a move to MLB via the posting system, with plans to visit and meet various teams in the U.S. shortly. MLB official data analysts note that his pitch characteristics resemble Luis Castillo, while his pitching strategy is similar to Max Scherzer’s.

MLB.com reporter David Adler, using data from NPB Pitch Profiler and Statcast, highlights Imai’s key weapons as follows:

· A four-seam fastball averaging 94.8 mph (about 152.6 km/h)

· A slider averaging 86.2 mph

· A changeup averaging 85.5 mph

He throws his fastball and changeup with significant horizontal movement from a nearly sidearm delivery, while his slider features sharp vertical break. Adler points out that this pitch mix and a 15-degree arm slot closely resemble Seattle Mariners starter Luis Castillo, who also throws a 95 mph fastball, an 84.5 mph slider, and an 87.2 mph changeup.

Regarding pitch usage, Imai employs a fastball-slider combination over 90% of the time against right-handed hitters, while incorporating his changeup more frequently against lefties. The combined usage of these three main pitches exceeds 90%. Adler notes this approach is very similar to veteran Toronto Blue Jays ace Max Scherzer, with both pitchers targeting nearly identical zones for their primary pitches.

In terms of individual pitch types, Imai’s fastball is said to most closely resemble that of Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan. Additionally, besides his regular changeup, he occasionally mixes in a splitter and a Vulcan changeup, a diverse arsenal comparable to Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes, who throws two types of splitters plus a changeup.

Previously, Imai expressed that rather than joining the favored Los Angeles Dodgers, who have multiple Japanese players, he prefers to compete against them and leans toward signing with a team without Japanese players to prove himself solely on his own merits in MLB. Multiple media outlets have speculated that the Dodgers’ rivals, the San Francisco Giants, could be a potential destination.

However, recent reports from several U.S. media outlets indicate that the Giants may not make a major offseason investment, and considering Imai’s expected contract worth over $100 million, he might not currently be among their primary targets.