Dodgers' ace left-hander Snell's probability of returning for Opening Day is "essentially zero," adding uncertainty to the rotation.

With each passing day of Dodgers spring training, it becomes more apparent that the team must accept the reality: Blake Snell is almost certainly not going to be in the Opening Day starting rotation.

"He hasn't stepped onto the pitcher's mound or participated in any spring training games," manager Dave Roberts said today. "The chance of him being ready for the start of the season is essentially zero."

While other Dodgers pitchers competing for rotation spots have been facing hitters and appearing in Cactus League exhibition games, Snell's progress has stalled. In the first two weeks of spring training, he has only been playing catch at a distance of about 90 feet. The left-hander is expected to soon advance to 120 feet, then 180 feet, before he can finally return to the mound. However, it's likely that by March 21st, when the team breaks camp, Snell will have only reached that stage.

From the very beginning of spring training, time has not been on Snell's side. He arrived at camp already behind schedule due to left shoulder discomfort that slowed his offseason throwing program—the same injury that sidelined him for four months last year.

Speaking to the media during the Dodgers' Fan Fest, Snell admitted that last year his shoulder "never felt right," even before the season began. He had just signed a five-year, $182 million contract and was eager to make a strong impression. Unfortunately, he made only two starts before landing on the injured list, though he finished the season strong with a 2.35 ERA over 11 starts and 61.1 innings. He carried that momentum into the postseason, posting a 3.18 ERA across 6 appearances (5 starts) and 34 innings.

"Last year, I was too eager to prove myself," Snell said on January 31st. "I was overly excited and rushed to catch up during spring training. This year, I'll take it slower and adjust more wisely."

The Dodgers typically build their starters up to handle around five innings and 75 pitches. Once Snell returns to the mound, he will need to rebuild all his pitches, likely through multi-inning simulated bullpen sessions before facing live hitters. After that, he would require rehab assignments, gradually increasing his workload start by start. The team has not provided a specific timeline, but Snell is unlikely to pitch for the Dodgers until May at the earliest.

At present, beyond Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers have several rotation spots to figure out. Shohei Ohtani is expected to be part of the Opening Day rotation, though he may not be fully stretched out. The remaining spots are up for competition, with Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, Gavin Stone, and River Ryan all in the mix.

Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Ohtani will be used as traditional starters, but others may fill more flexible hybrid roles as needed. This means there will be some fluidity between the back end of the rotation and long relief.

"With pitchers, health is always unpredictable," Roberts said. "Having this many arms in reserve clearly gives us a lot of flexibility."

Losing a frontline starter like Snell for the start of the season is a significant blow for any team. However, the Dodgers have weathered pitching injuries during their back-to-back championship runs. They built their roster with depth intentionally, preparing to handle any challenges on the path to a potential three-peat.