Los Angeles Dodgers' sixth-ranked prospect shines in spring training but likely starts season in Triple-A.

River Ryan has been one of the standout pitchers competing for a spot in the Dodgers' starting rotation this spring, yet it appears unlikely he will begin the new season in the major leagues—both statements can be true simultaneously.

According to MLB Pipeline, Ryan is ranked as the Dodgers' sixth-best prospect for the upcoming season. His major league debut was abruptly halted a year and a half ago due to Tommy John surgery. The 27-year-old right-hander impressed in 2024, posting a 1.33 ERA over four starts. This spring, he has shown little rust, recording a 1.86 ERA across four appearances. This includes his first start in a split-squad game against the Texas Rangers today, where he pitched four innings allowing only one run and striking out five, helping the team secure a 5-3 victory.

The Dodgers have not yet decided whether Ryan will start the season in Los Angeles or at Triple-A Oklahoma City, but signs point more strongly toward the latter.

Here are the reasons:

The Dodgers' needs

The Dodgers may not require six fixed starters for their first 12 games in 15 days at the start of the season, but they likely will need them for the subsequent 19 games in 20 days. As manager Dave Roberts noted, "having six available pitchers to handle innings is beneficial," even if the team can manage the early stretch with just five starters. This approach allows the Dodgers to pair Shohei Ohtani, who might only pitch two or three innings, with another pitcher and keep more long-relief options in the bullpen.

Four spots in the starting rotation are essentially secured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and Roki Sasaki. Blake Snell and Gavin Stone will begin the season on the injury list. Ryan, Emmet Sheehan, and Justin Wrobleski are the main contenders for the remaining spots.

The Dodgers do not necessarily need their fifth and sixth starters to have hybrid role capabilities, but they believe more options are preferable. This seems to give Sheehan and Wrobleski, who have experience as swingmen, an edge over Ryan.

Ryan's role

This spring, Ryan has appeared more often in relief than as a starter, largely because the team needed to gradually build up multiple pitchers. The Dodgers view Ryan as a starting pitcher and prefer to keep him in that familiar role this year.

"I think he's open to whatever the team needs. He's a mentally tough young man," Roberts said. "It comes back to what's best for him... but clearly, given his recent surgery, maintaining a regular routine makes sense."

Ryan has minimal relief experience and finds it challenging to adapt his usual starter preparation routine to mid-game warm-ups. He understands that at some point, especially in postseason play, he may need to pitch from the bullpen, so he values any opportunity to develop a feasible preparation process. Currently, however, he still wants to start.

"Personally, I feel that as a starter, having a complete preparation routine before going out is more friendly to my body, especially after surgery," Ryan said. "Warming up in the bullpen with little prior pitching doesn't feel great. But it's manageable, and I feel fine now."

Workload considerations

The Dodgers must also consider how many innings Ryan can realistically handle this year. Returning from major surgery is one factor, but his career pitching volume is another. As a professional, he has only once exceeded 100 innings in a season, in 2023. In 2024, before his injury, he totaled just 44.2 innings across minor and major leagues.

"Looking at the history of players who have gone through such injuries," Roberts said, "expecting him to make 30 starts is unrealistic."

The question is not whether Ryan can contribute to the Dodgers this year, but when. Both he and the team anticipate he will play a role in the postseason. Ensuring he remains effective at that time is one factor in the Dodgers' decision on where he should start the season. Beginning in Triple-A allows him a smooth transition into what is expected to be a significant year.

"It feels like they handle players returning from surgery very well," Ryan said. "I think they're aiming to do that for me right now."