ESPN experts predict six major awards: Jokic MVP, Wembanyama DPOY, Amen Most Improved

On August 26th Beijing time, ESPN's expert panel voted on predictions for the six major NBA awards for the upcoming season, with each voter listing their top three choices per award: 5 points for first place, 3 for second, and 1 for third. Below are the total points accumulated for each award—

1. Most Valuable Player of the Regular Season

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 83 points

Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 62 points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 46 points

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks / Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 9 points (tie)

Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets: 8 points

Jokic, a three-time MVP, is the leading favorite for a fourth MVP trophy in the preseason predictions, with a score nearly double that of the defending candidate Gilgeous-Alexander.

Voters also seem impressed by Doncic’s offseason “transformation”: the leaner Lakers star ranks second in early voting. Team success is always a key factor in MVP voting, which may explain Gilgeous-Alexander’s drop to third—meaning he has already led the Thunder to a championship level and earned MVP honors; but the question is, can he and this “youngest championship team in decades” elevate further?

2. Rookie of the Year

Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks: 121 points

Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 38 points

VJ Echikson, Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points

Con Knupel, Charlotte Hornets: 18 points

Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz: 16 points

Flagg leads the voting by a wide margin, which is unsurprising—he is the top prospect among this rookie class, possessing a versatile “plug-and-play” skill set, and is set to play a significant role on a playoff-contending team with veteran presence. Rookie of the Year often depends on the “blend of talent and environment,” and Flagg has the best combination of both upon entering the league.

Harper and Echikson rank second and third respectively, both capable of making meaningful impacts as rookies. However, the shared question for them is: how much playing time will they earn in their crowded backcourt rotations? Will that opportunity be enough to contend for Rookie of the Year? At present, Flagg clearly holds a substantial advantage.

3. Defensive Player of the Year

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 95 points

Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 31 points

Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 20 points

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 16 points

Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 14 points

Last season, Spurs prodigy Wembanyama was sidelined early on February 20 due to a right shoulder deep vein thrombosis, missing the 65-game eligibility threshold and thus forfeiting his chance at his first DPOY award. Despite playing only 46 games, Wembanyama led the league with 176 blocks, far ahead of second-place Brook Lopez (148); additionally, he averaged 1.1 steals per game, and when he was on the court, the Spurs’ defensive rating was 115.4, which surged to 121.4 when he sat out.

If Wembanyama meets the league’s 65-game requirement this season, he is highly likely to win the award overwhelmingly over competitors Mobley, Holmgren, Antetokounmpo, and Gobert, making him the clear favorite to lift the trophy.

4. Sixth Man of the Year

Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 66 points

Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves: 52 points

Alexander Walker, Atlanta Hawks: 39 points

Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics: 18 points

Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies: 17 points

This award traditionally goes to players who provide instant scoring off the bench—the last time a Sixth Man averaged under 10 points per game was 30 years ago, and it has happened only three times in the award’s history. Caruso’s impact in his first Thunder season, especially in the playoffs, is undeniable, but he averaged only 7.1 points in the regular season and received just one third-place vote last season, finishing eighth overall. As a role player in the Thunder lineup, the 31-year-old veteran’s scoring is unlikely to increase significantly in his ninth NBA season.

The Thunder will continue to carefully manage Caruso’s playing time (last season he played 54 games averaging 19.3 minutes): on one hand, to keep him fresh for a possible deep playoff run; on the other, to provide growth opportunities for younger guards like Ajayi Mitchell and Topičić. However, winning this award based on elite defense and contribution to a championship contender is not unprecedented—Bobby Jones of the 76ers was the inaugural Sixth Man winner in the 1982-83 season.

It should be noted that some players might lose eligibility: Pritchard and Alexander Walker are likely to become starters this season.

5. Most Improved Player

Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 59 points

Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers: 40 points

Osar Thompson, Detroit Pistons: 18 points

Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers: 14 points

Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 14 points

Amen Thompson is the frontrunner for this award because in the 2025-26 season, he will play a key role on a highly anticipated Rockets team. Entering his third NBA season, Thompson showed progress already in his second year.

He has long established himself as a “top-tier defender”: not only has he been named to the All-Defensive Team, but he is also one of the league’s best ball defenders. In last season’s playoffs, his offensive game also showed improvement—his ball handling became steadier, shooting more accurate, and his scoring average rose as the series progressed, revealing his offensive potential. This season, he will play alongside Kevin Durant, who as the Rockets’ offensive centerpiece is far stronger than last season’s team core, undoubtedly boosting Thompson’s performance further.

6. Coach of the Year

Jamal Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 points

Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 points

Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 22 points

Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 points

Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points

When Mosley took over the Magic in 2021, his primary task was “developing young players,” and he led this young core to the playoffs twice in a row. Now, Mosley’s roster is capable of contending in an Eastern Conference weakened by injuries. Our prediction panel believes he will lead the Magic to a significant breakthrough and win the Coach of the Year award.

With the additions of Bane and Tyus Jones, the Magic are poised to achieve 50+ wins for the first time since the 2010-11 season. Health will be crucial, especially whether Jalen Suggs can fully recover from left knee surgery.