Lakers insider report: LeBron James has a 15% chance of requesting a trade, with two factors that could significantly increase this possibility.

On August 30th Beijing time, Lakers reporter Jovan Buha engaged with fans during a podcast. A fan inquired about the probability of LeBron James asking for a trade, and Buha’s answer was as follows—

“I estimate an 85% chance he won’t request and a 15% chance he will. Initially, I thought it was 95% no request and 5% yes; a month ago I adjusted it to 90% no and 10% yes; now it’s 85% no—clearly, staying with the Lakers remains the most likely outcome.”

“However, two factors could shift these odds:First, LeBron announcing that this upcoming season will be his last, and second, the Lakers performing poorly before the trade deadline.If LeBron explicitly states ‘I will retire after this season,’ and by mid to late January the Lakers are ranked around 7th or 8th in the Western Conference, becoming a mediocre team, he might request a trade to pursue one last championship and provide a list of preferred teams.”

“Currently, we don’t have clarity on two key points: whether LeBron will retire after this season (he might play 2-3 more years), and where the Lakers will stand in the standings by mid to late January. Therefore, only if these two ‘dominoes’ fall in sequence will LeBron’s trade request chances rise sharply.”

“At present, I expect LeBron to attend the Lakers’ media day, training camp, preseason, and play through the entire season; if you ask me now ‘Where will LeBron be on April 15th (end of regular season)?’ I still believe he will be wearing a Lakers jersey.”

What do you think—will LeBron request a trade away from the Lakers? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.