Next Noel? Reports reveal significant gap between Kuminga and Warriors: the final outcome may be detrimental to both sides

On September 3rd Beijing time, according to Warriors reporter Dalton Johnson’s report,the contract extension tug-of-war between the Warriors and restricted free agent Kuminga is ongoing. NBA training camp will begin in four weeks, and there is under a month left before Kuminga’s deadline to accept the qualifying offer on October 1. So, how are the negotiations progressing?The answer is that there remains a significant divide between the two sides.

Sources reveal that, at present, the one-year qualifying offer worth $7.9 million remains Kuminga’s most appealing option. Although the Warriors have proposed a two-year deal totaling around $45 million, they insist on including a “team option” for the second year; Kuminga and his camp have made it clear they want to change that to a “player option.”

If Kuminga ultimately signs the qualifying offer, the Warriors will effectively lose the ability to trade him this season, which would seriously affect the team’s roster building. Therefore, to avoid this scenario, the Warriors must convince Kuminga that their offer is far superior to simply accepting the qualifying offer as a last resort. There are two ways to achieve this: either drop the “team option” in favor of Kuminga’s requested “player option,” or increase the upfront salary to reduce the controversy around the “team option” in negotiations.

According to sources, the Warriors’ offer includes a first-year salary of $21.75 million, but under the NBA’s “base salary compensation rule,” if Kuminga is traded, his “output salary” (the salary value counted in the trade) would be only half of that amount. This shows that the core issue in these negotiations is a battle over “control.”

Over the past four years, Kuminga and the Warriors have failed to agree on several key points: Kuminga’s current player role, his potential development with increased opportunities, and his future growth ceiling. The deadlock in this offseason’s talks has further strengthened Kuminga’s desire to control his own destiny and decide his future path. He wants to ensure that whichever team he plays for next, he starts off in a comfortable environment with clear support to guarantee his growth and success.

Outside observers have been puzzled: why does Kuminga insist on gaining effective “trade veto power” through the qualifying offer while also demanding a “player option” in the extension contract—especially when many believe he might want to leave the Warriors? In fact, Kuminga does not want to become a “pawn” on a team where he once felt like a “scapegoat.” Furthermore, heading into his fifth NBA season, he is still uncertain about his role—likely unable to be a starter and possibly even excluded from critical rotation minutes.

For Kuminga, signing the qualifying offer carries risks, which his agent Aaron Turner does not deny. However, compared to that, the risks faced by the Warriors are much greater.

The Warriors’ core lineup (Curry, Poole, Green) is aging, and if Kuminga signs the qualifying offer, the team will lose their “best asset” for acquiring star players at the NBA trade deadline—because once Kuminga holds a qualifying offer, other teams cannot provide an early extension contract after a trade, making his trade value nearly zero.

Additionally, the Warriors will lose Kuminga’s “Bird rights” (special rights allowing the team to exceed the salary cap to re-sign him). If Kuminga leaves after this season, the Warriors will not only receive no compensation (despite rejecting multiple trade offers for Kuminga over the years) but also face media attention and distractions throughout the season caused by controversies surrounding the qualifying offer, impacting team chemistry.

Thus, it is clear that the “nightmare scenario” brought by the qualifying offer would cause much more harm to the Warriors than to Kuminga.

The potential risk of Kuminga signing the qualifying offer is exemplified by Noel’s experience. In the summer of 2017, the Dallas Mavericks offered Noel a four-year $70 million deal, which he declined, hoping to secure a max contract later but ultimately failed. He then had to accept a $4.1 million qualifying offer. However, that season he was plagued by injuries, playing only 30 games and averaging 4.4 points, disappointing many. The following offseason, Noel signed a two-year veteran minimum contract with the Thunder.

However, Kuminga’s situation differs significantly from Noel’s: Noel missed his entire rookie season due to an ACL tear and had already missed 31 games in the season before the contract dispute; when he declined the $70 million offer, his career averages were just 10 points and 7.5 rebounds (27.6 minutes per game), never possessing the scoring ability Kuminga has. Their contract situations are therefore completely different.

For Kuminga, the gap between the team’s extension offer and the qualifying offer is not as large as Noel’s $66 million difference—comparing the one-year qualifying offer ($7.9 million) to the Warriors’ first-year salary offer ($21.75 million), the difference is only slightly over $13 million. Moreover, Kuminga will undoubtedly mitigate potential risks by purchasing insurance. The 7th overall pick from 2021 will turn 23 on October 6 and is confident his next long-term contract’s annual salary will easily exceed $13 million.

It is reported that both the Kings and Suns have offered Kuminga long-term contracts, promising him a starting role and clearly positioning him as their future power forward. Sources reveal that both offers include “player options” but depend on a “sign-and-trade” arrangement, which the Warriors’ management has never been convinced by, so these deals did not materialize.

Currently, four restricted free agents in the NBA—Kuminga, Giddey, Cameron Thomas, and Grimes—have yet to finalize contracts. The “first domino” in this deadlock is urgently awaited to fall. Sources say there is “no progress” between the Warriors and Kuminga at present; both sides remain deadlocked, waiting for the other to make the first concession.