Unveiling Giannis Antetokounmpo's trade value: Can the Bucks not get back 4 first-round picks? Multiple factors limit superstar returns

On December 6th Beijing time, while Giannis and the Bucks are still exploring the best path forward, the potential trade for this two-time NBA MVP might not yield assets matching his prestigious resume. ESPN reporter Wojnowski revealed that the prevailing mindset among league executives is “no team will give up 4 first-round picks for any player.”

The reason lies in teams’ concerns over the “salary cap luxury tax line rules” — without an opportunity like the Celtics had this summer (who saved over $300 million by trading core players like Jrue Holiday and Porzingis), teams simply “cannot reset their rosters.”

Wojnowski stated: “I can tell you clearly, after speaking with many executives, even if they’re not currently negotiating with the Bucks or other teams on star trades, the overall NBA trend now is no one is willing to part with 4 first-round picks for anyone… This is the current mindset, with teams somewhat wary of the salary cap luxury tax rules. Trades involving 5 first-round picks won’t happen again; I know those deals were once popular, but they are impossible going forward.”

Previously, reporter Shams reported that Giannis and his agent have begun discussions with the Bucks to explore his future, clarifying whether “Milwaukee remains his best destination or if he needs to find a new team.”

For a player of Giannis’ caliber, 4 first-round picks should be the starting point in trade talks. For reference, this summer the Magic gave up 3 unprotected first-round picks plus a 2029 pick swap to acquire Bane from the Grizzlies.

Bane is undoubtedly a strong player who has positively impacted the Magic so far, but Giannis remains one of the top three active stars in the league, on the same tier as Jokic and Alexander.

A major uncertainty in Giannis’ trade lies in the Bucks’ unpredictable demandsSince the team won’t have unrestricted first-round picks until 2031, tanking for a rebuild makes no sense for them. This means the Bucks will likely need to find a trade partner willing to offer top-tier talent in exchange for Giannis or hope the acquiring team soon falls into a slump, allowing Milwaukee to gain a high draft pick.

Another significant challenge is that in the salary cap luxury tax era, Giannis’ contract greatly reduces his trade valueHe earns $54.1 million this season, $58.5 million in 2026-27, and holds a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28.

However, ESPN salary expert Max also noted that the Bucks have not yet reached the luxury tax threshold, giving them some flexibility to absorb salary in potential trades.

Additionally, Giannis’ health status must be considered— during the Bucks’ game against the Pistons, he suffered an injury scare. Bucks coach Rivers confirmed it is not an Achilles injury but that Giannis will miss 2 to 4 weeks due to a calf strain.

So far this season, Giannis continues his elite play, averaging 28.9 points on 63.9% shooting, along with 10.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists over 17 starts. The Bucks began the season 8-5 but have lost 8 of their last 10 games, currently sitting 10-13 and tenth in the Eastern Conference, 3.5 games behind the sixth seed that avoids the play-in tournament.