The likelihood of a Kuminga trade has drastically dropped! Butler’s season-ending injury poses two major challenges for the Warriors, ruling out the possibility of applying for a hardship exception.

On January 21st Beijing time, according to Warriors insider Slater, Butler’s season-ending ACL tear creates a chance for Kuminga to return to the Warriors’ rotation.

Slater added on the program: "I’ve heard that the team is exploring plans to reintegrate Kuminga into the rotation. I also understand that Kuminga is ready and on standby. This turbulent chapter is about to enter a new phase."

Additionally, Kuminga’s probability on Polymarket has sharply declined from 90% to 63%.

Salary cap expert Marks noted that Butler’s absence likely increases the Warriors’ focus on retaining Kuminga—after all, he is one of the few rotation players with the size of a standard forward that coach Kerr has. Previously, Kerr’s reason for dropping Kuminga from the rotation was uncertainty about his fit after Butler joined last season.

However, it’s important to note that before acquiring Butler at last season’s trade deadline, the Warriors’ winning percentage was consistently below 50%, largely due to achallenge Kuminga has yet to solve on his own: how to maintain the team’s offensive firepower when Curry is off the court.

According to basketball analytics site Cleaning the Glass, in the 2024-25 season, when Kuminga was on the floor but both Butler and Curry were absent, the Warriors’ offensive efficiency ranked in the bottom 2% league-wide, with a net minus 7.5 points per 100 possessions. After acquiring Butler, he led lineups without Curry to league-average offensive performance, boasting a net efficiency of +12.6 per 100 possessions.

Butler’s injury presents the Warriors with two major problems: first, filling the height gap on the wing, and second, compensating for offensive playmaking during Curry’s rest periods.In this context, the team might consider trading Kuminga, possibly packaging him with the rarely used guard Buddy Hield, to acquire a player who can address both issues simultaneously.

On the positive side, the Warriors currently hold an 8th seed position in the play-in race, leading the Trail Blazers by three games. Securing a top-8 spot or better is crucial, as it could allow them to aim for the 7th seed and avoid facing the strong Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.

On the downside, before Tuesday’s game, the Warriors were hoping to climb higher in the standings—after the game, their gap with the 4th place Timberwolves shrank to just 2.5 games. For a team with long-term ambitions, avoiding the play-in tournament and securing home-court advantage in the first round was their biggest confidence booster. Now, without Butler, that goal seems increasingly unlikely.

The news of Butler’s right knee ACL tear offers no relief for the Warriors’ roster adjustments.Although Butler will miss the remainder of the regular season and playoffs, the league’s deadline to apply for the hardship exception was January 16th, so the Warriors have missed the opportunity to apply.

Had Butler’s injury occurred before the deadline, the Warriors could have applied for a $14.1 million hardship exception to sign or trade for a player with one year left on their contract. However, two conditions must be met to apply: the team must have an open roster spot, and total salary must not exceed the second luxury tax threshold. Currently, the Warriors’ roster is full with 15 players, and their total salary is only $264,000 below the second luxury tax line.

With Butler sidelined, will the Warriors prioritize keeping Kuminga, who recently requested a trade? This season, in the 152 possessions where Green and Kuminga played together but Butler was absent, the Warriors were outscored by 9.4 points per 100 possessions. In the recent game against the Heat, Butler left injured in the third quarter, yet Kuminga did not see any playing time. In fact, he hasn’t appeared in any game since December 19th.

The Warriors may also opt to replace Butler with second-round pick Richard. In Butler’s most recent absence, the Warriors started Richard alongside Green, Curry, Moody, and Poole.