TA Predicts Six Major Awards: Jokić MVP, Knecht Rookie of the Year, Spurs Could Be Biggest Winners

On February 27, Beijing time, the well-known American media The Athletic (TA) made predictions for the six major regular-season awards for the 2025-26 season. They favor Nikola Jokić to win MVP, Dalton Knecht to be Rookie of the Year, and the Spurs, with three award winners, to emerge as the biggest victors. The specific predictions and analysis are as follows—

Regular Season MVP: Nikola Jokić (Nuggets)

If Jokić ultimately maintains his eligibility, his statistics are impossible to ignore: averaging 28.8 points, 10.5 assists, and 12.5 rebounds per game, with shooting splits of 58.4%/42.1%/83.6% and a true shooting percentage of 69.3%. In NBA history, only two players have averaged at least 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists for a season: Oscar Robertson in 1962 and Jokić last season.

This season, he is putting up these numbers again with inhuman efficiency, while also leading the league in rebounds and assists per game. When Jokić is on the court, the Nuggets are the most dominant team in the league; when he sits, the team's performance falls somewhere between the Mavericks and the Bulls. However, the prerequisite is that he must meet the 65-game requirement to remain eligible for awards.

Rookie of the Year: Dalton Knecht (Hornets)

Knecht is the top favorite for Rookie of the Year because the gap in games played between him and Cooper Flagg has widened. Flagg has missed four consecutive games due to a mid-foot sprain, while Knecht has played nine more games and logged nearly 200 more minutes.

Their statistical production is not vastly different, but Knecht is simply playing more right now. Flagg needs to return to action soon to boost his case. More crucially, the Hornets are pushing for a play-in spot, while the Mavericks are tanking, giving Knecht's minutes higher "quality," which could be the deciding factor for voters.

Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)

The suspense for this award is diminishing.

In December and even early January, Rudy Gobert's defensive impact for the Timberwolves was still highly persuasive. Chet Holmgren was once the betting favorite, as he is the anchor for the league's top-ranked defense. But now, with Wembanyama back, the Spurs have been playing truly elite-level defense with him on the floor, and their record has soared. This no longer feels like a competition, but more like a coronation.

Sixth Man of the Year: Keldon Johnson (Spurs)

After a scorching January, Naz Reid of the Timberwolves has cooled off somewhat in February. The on-court impact of the Spurs' Johnson this month keeps him firmly in first place. The Spurs desperately need the energy and interior presence he provides when he plays. The Timberwolves also need Reid, but his recent play hasn't matched most of his season. Still, this remains a very tight race.

Coach of the Year: Mitch Johnson (Spurs)

TA still backs the Spurs' head coach for the award, but the Pistons' J.B. Bickerstaff and the Celtics' Joe Mazzulla are also deserving.

Bickerstaff has the Pistons firmly atop the Eastern Conference; Mazzulla has the Celtics performing far above expectations; and Johnson has a very young Spurs team contending for the league's best record.

Most Improved Player: Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers)

Jalen Johnson is currently the betting favorite, but most of his improvement actually occurred last season; he just couldn't sustain it early this season due to injury. This doesn't mean he's unworthy, but TA believes Avdija has shown more tangible on-court improvement this season. Additionally, Keyonte George of the Jazz should be in the conversation, but he has missed 8 of the Jazz's last 9 games.