The anti-tanking plan is basically finalized! The draft lottery expands to 18 teams, with the 10 worst teams each having an 8% chance for the top pick.

On April 27 Beijing time, according to renowned reporter Sam Amick, the NBA's draft system reform is about to take a crucial step. The league will hold an online general managers meeting on Wednesday, with management from all 30 teams participating to advance this far-reaching rule adjustment.

The rampant tanking phenomenon this season has severely damaged the league's image. Among the three reform proposals aimed at curbing deliberate tanking, Proposal One has become the dominant alternative.

Current rules: Only the 14 worst teams in the league participate in the draft lottery. The three lowest-ranked teams each have a 14% chance for the top pick, with probabilities decreasing as rankings improve.

The core content of Proposal One is as follows—

1. Expand the lottery pool: From 14 teams to 18 teams;

2. Guaranteed balance mechanism: The 10 teams with the worst league records will have their chance for the top pick uniformly fixed at 8%;

3. The remaining 20% chance for the top pick will be evenly distributed among the other 8 lottery teams.

The final implementation of the new rules requires approval from at least 23 of the 30 team owners in a vote at the upcoming league board meeting. Details of the proposals may still be fine-tuned later. Butaccording to league and team internal sources, Proposal One is largely settled and is highly likely to be formally adopted.

League Commissioner Adam Silver had already sternly stated at the February general managers meeting: The tanking trend is severely damaging the NBA's reputation. All new rules will officially take effect next season. Silver clearly stated during that contentious online meeting: "Starting next season, winning games will be the only reasonable competitive goal for every team."

However, whether this new set of rules can permanently restore competitive fairness in the league remains highly controversial. Several general managers have expressed concerns: The new rules merely replace old problems with new ones.

For example: If a team that previously made the playoffs unexpectedly wins the top pick, it would inevitably cause a stir across the league.

This situation seems extremely unlikely, but it has already occurred in the past two years—

In 2024, the Hawks, with only a 3% chance for the top pick, secured the top pick and drafted Risacher;

In 2025, the Mavericks, with an extremely low 1.8% chance, pulled off an upset to obtain the top pick and drafted Flagg.

Looking back at data from the past 20 years: Among the last 20 top picks, 8 teams had lottery chances below 10%, with 5 of those below 5%. Frequent underdog wins have already become commonplace.