19th NBA play-in preview: Hawks and Grizzlies are favored to advance Morant may participate in the life-and-death battle with an injury

On April 19, Beijing time, the NBA will play its last two play-off games. The Heat played the Hawks on the road, and the winner advanced to the Eastern Conference playoffs as the No. 8 seed and faced the Cavaliers, who ranked No. 1 in the East, in the first round. The Mavericks played the Grizzlies on the road, and the winner advanced to the Western Conference playoffs as the No. 8 seed and faced the Thunder, who are ranked No. 1 in the West, in the first round. Judging from the predictions on the NBA's official website and ESPN, the Hawks and Grizzlies are the two more favored teams. Morant, who has an ankle injury, is currently in doubtful state and may participate in this life-and-death battle with an injury.

7:00: Heat vs. Hawks

The Heat finished the regular season with 37 wins and 45 losses, ranking 10th in the East; The Hawks finished the regular season 40-42 and finished eighth in the East. The two teams have met four times in the regular season this season, winning two games each.

Focus on: How to defend Trae Young in pick-and-rolls

The Heat could have a player to defend Young, and if they stick with the starting lineup for Thursday's game against the Bulls, it's likely Wiggins. But the more critical question is how to defend Young's pick-and-roll play, which has been screened 3,495 times this season, at least 774 more than any other player in the league.

Young's passing ability is better than his shots. On Wednesday, the Magic managed to influence his play by limiting his passing opportunities. Statistics show that in that game, Young made only 8 of 21 shots and only 18 shots created by passes, tied for his sixth-lowest single-game game this season. The Heat could also limit Young's play by switching defenses, but that could expose weaknesses in basket and rebounding protection.

Key matchup: Herro vs Daniels

The player who has defended Herro the most this season has been Daniels, although he missed the first of the four meetings between the two sides. Daniels will certainly take on the role of defending Herro on Saturday, and the Heat will certainly find a way to keep the Defensive Player of the Year candidate from keeping up with their top scorer.

Young is also expected to be involved in the defensive action against Herro. Burks (the starter likely to be defended by Young) has only set up 19 screens for Herro in total this season, but six of those have come against the Hawks. Young needs to pinch Herro for as long as possible so that Daniels can get back into place. If Daniels can keep up with Herro, the Heat's offense could be in trouble.

List of injuries and illnesses

Heat: Jovic, Love, and Larson are doubtful

Hawks: Capela, Jalen Johnson, Barfkin, Nance Jr. are out, and Trae Young is likely to play

ESPN Predicted Win Rate:Heat 45.7%, Hawks 54.3%

NBA official website prediction: Hawks win

In the four regular season meetings between the two teams, the teams playing at home have won all of them, and the key to victory or defeat lies entirely in the Heat's offensive performance. In Atlanta's two games, the Heat scored just 99.5 points per 100 possessions, but back in the two games in Miami, they scored 132.5 points per 100 possessions, shooting 41-of-75 from three-point range and shooting 55 percent from the field. Davien Mitchell and Haywood Highsmith combined for 16-of-20 three-pointers in those two games.

9:30 a.m.: Mavericks vs. Grizzlies

The Mavericks are 39-43 in the regular season and 10th in the West; The Grizzlies finished the regular season 48-34 and finished eighth in the West. The two teams have met four times in the regular season this season, with the Grizzlies winning 3-1.

Focus on: the battle for the inside line

During the regular season, the Grizzlies averaged 7.9 more points per game on the interior than their opponents, the second-highest in the league. The Mavericks have a negative interior scoring margin, but now they have a healthy and large interior lineup — PJ Washington, Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford — that can't be compared. In addition, the Mavericks' backcourt lineup is also taller than the Grizzlies.

To limit the Grizzlies' scoring on the inside, they must first contain them in the transition offense, which averaged 32.8 points per game during the regular season, the highest in the league. On top of that, this game will be a battle of positioning, rebounding, and foul making. Despite the league's all-time number of three-point attempts this season, the outcome of this game is likely to depend on interior performance.

Key matchup: Davis vs Jaren Jackson Jr

This season, when the two (when Davis was still with the Lakers) played against each other, they both shot well. The interior confrontation will be dominated by these two talented power forwards, who will occasionally make cameo appearances at the center position. Davis' usage rate with the Mavericks (31.6 percent in the regular season and 32.5 percent on Thursday) would set a new high for him in nearly eight seasons. Over the past two seasons, Jackson has also taken on a more important role on the offensive end.

List of injuries and illnesses

Mavericks: Irving and Prosper are out, and Thick Eyebrows and Brandon Williams are likely to play

Grizzlies: Clarke, Wells are out, and Morant's participation is doubtful

ESPN Predicted Win Rate:The Mavericks 35.6% and the Grizzlies 64.4%.

NBA official website prediction: Grizzlies win

Despite the Grizzlies' struggles against strong teams, they have a 36-9 record this season against 16 teams with a final win percentage of 50% or less (17-4 at home). While both teams have strong interior dominance, the Grizzlies clearly have the superior firepower on the outside. On Wednesday, the Grizzlies lost to the Warriors, with Morant and Bane combining for 52 points. The Mavericks' best outside defenders, Exum and Christie, are both from the bench (and both played less than 20 minutes against the Kings).

The outcome of this game could be based on possession (turnovers and rebounds), and the Grizzlies should have the edge in that regard, which creates the transition offense they need.