ESPN: The league has entered the longest period of competitive balance in history, making dynasty-building more challenging than ever.

On August 8, Beijing time, ESPN published an in-depth article discussing the recent competitive landscape of the NBA, lamenting that building a dynasty has never been so difficult.

The development of the NBA has long relied on dynasty teams as its foundation: the Celtics dominated in the 1960s, the rivalry between Bird and "Magic" shaped the league in the 1980s, and from the 1990s to the early 2000s, the Bulls, Lakers, and Spurs each established dynasties that defined their eras; the 2010s belonged to LeBron (with the Heat and Cavaliers) and the Warriors led by Curry.

However,since the Warriors' back-to-back championships in 2017-2018, the NBA has seen seven different championship teams, marking the longest period of competitive balance in league history, during which 11 teams reached the Finals, also a record.A similar situation last occurred in the late 1970s (from 1975 to 1980, there were six championship teams and eight Finals teams).

Today, the league is closer to a state where "all 30 teams have a chance to compete for the title," a goal advocated by Commissioner Silver in the past two collective bargaining agreements. "Equal opportunity benefits the league," Silver stated, "more teams having a chance to win makes competition more appealing and attracts more fans." He expressed no opposition to dynasties within a fair system and did not set a goal of changing champions every year.

The core question is: Has the new system fundamentally changed how the league operates? Has the new collective bargaining agreement ended dynasties, or is the next dynasty about to begin?

Defending championships has become costly.

After the Thunder won their first championship in June, General Manager Presti was asked whether the salary cap and luxury tax hinder small-market teams from becoming perennial contenders, stating that teams have limited experience with the new rules and should not rush to conclusions.

However, most people disagree, believing that although the Thunder have a wide championship window, dynasties may be a thing of the past. Silver noted that the system allows successful teams to maintain roster continuity but requires tougher choices.

The restrictive luxury tax threshold has forced high-spending teams to re-evaluate their plans. The Celtics were close to becoming the first team with a $500 million payroll, but during the offseason, they traded championship contributors Holiday and Porziņģis, and let go of Horford and Kornet, reducing their payroll by hundreds of millions for the next season.

As the only team above the second luxury tax threshold, the Cavaliers watched as their Sixth Man of the Year candidate Jerome joined the Grizzlies due to salary constraints.

The Nuggets traded their only tradeable 2032 unprotected first-round pick and Michael Porter to reacquire Johnson, saving significant costs while using those funds to strengthen their bench, planning to re-sign Braun next summer.

These are the expected outcomes of the rules set by Silver and the league, making every trade and every dollar crucial.

Roster missteps could jeopardize the path to a dynasty.

For a team to become a potential dynasty, it must not only gather talent but also avoid signing bad contracts. The current system heavily emphasizes flexibility, punishing teams that overlook it.

"Every decision must be correct," said a Western scout. "Focusing on a three-year window leaves no room for error, which forces management to plan more wisely."

Last summer, the Clippers did not re-sign Paul George, allowing him to join the 76ers as a free agent (four years, $212 million max deal). Despite criticism, the Clippers prioritized flexibility and had a 50-win season while adding veterans, aiming to reshape their roster by 2027. In contrast, the 76ers saw George play only 41 games with mediocre performance (undergoing knee surgery this summer), and with uncertainty surrounding another max player, Embiid, their investment of over $100 million each year seems bleak.

"Teams in the league will focus more on depth and balance," stated an Eastern scout. "Under the luxury tax restrictions, the 'Big Three' model is becoming unsustainable, as overly high salaries will hinder strong teams from building effectively."

The Knicks have assembled a starting five of Brunson, Hart, and others through signings, trades, and re-signings, maintaining competitiveness while keeping their payroll below the luxury tax line. The Cavaliers hope to retain their four core players, including Mitchell (all under 30), while the Magic have brought in Bane, aiming to build a quartet to challenge for the championship.

The defending champion Thunder have a financial advantage, re-signing stars like Alexander while adding reasonably contracted veterans and rookies, plus ample future draft picks, allowing them to avoid repeating luxury tax issues for the next decade.

The distribution of talent in the league has never been so broad.

Many stars hope to make an impact in the upcoming playoffs.

After finishing second in the West last season, the Rockets acquired Durant to boost their championship odds; the Lakers restructured their roster around Doncic and LeBron, confident in their championship potential; the Warriors expect to address the Kuminga contract issue, making a competitive trio of Curry, Butler, and Green; the Clippers deepened their roster by adding Collins, Beal, and Paul, despite their players' advanced ages. These moves highlight the widespread distribution of talent in the league, especially in the West, increasing the difficulty of defending the title.

"Typically, star turnover occurs earlier, with older players fading and new stars emerging, keeping the numbers stable," said an Eastern executive. "However, veterans like LeBron, Curry, Durant, and Harden are still performing at a high level in their 30s, leading to an unprecedented number of stars... If players can maintain their form with the help of health management, this could become the new norm, unless expansion occurs or veterans retire."

Among the 15 players in last season's All-NBA team, three (LeBron at 40, Curry, and Harden) are over 35; Jalen Williams, Cunningham, and Mobley are on rookie contracts, while Edwards is under 25. Doncic and Wembanyama missed enough games due to injury to fall short of the required 65-game threshold for awards, further emphasizing the depth of the talent pool.

"I support competitive balance, with multiple teams having a chance to win the title," said an Eastern executive. "But this somewhat extends beyond the collective bargaining agreement; the league's talent is more widespread, making winning the championship more challenging."

Can dynasties rise again?

This raises two questions: Will the league continue to experience competitive balance? Is this a good thing?

The last period of competitive balance in the NBA occurred in the late 1970s, coinciding with the ABA-NBA merger that brought new teams and stars. In recent years, the pandemic has kept the salary cap stable, but player contracts have still increased by 5%-8%, impacting team finances. An Eastern scout noted that future salary cap increases might exceed expectations, enhancing teams' capacity to absorb salaries, with the luxury tax threshold rising accordingly, along with mid-level exceptions and other tools, providing greater operational flexibility.

Silver believes that certain player movement benefits the development of the league with 30 teams. Historically, the Bulls of the 1990s, the Kobe-era Lakers, and the Spurs dynasty all replaced role players while keeping their core intact. Today, while the Thunder can retain their core, role players may leave due to salary pressures.

There is a divide over the pros and cons of competitive balance: for owners, having multiple teams with championship opportunities is beneficial; however, from a league revenue perspective, dynasty teams and superstars may be more advantageous. Nonetheless, competitive balance among championship teams could become the new norm or might just be a transitional phase like the late 1970s.

Silver stated that it's too early to draw conclusions, but the fact that seven different championship teams have emerged in the past seven years indicates that the league is heading in the right direction, with its goal of equal championship opportunities potentially achieved.