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The legend of the Year of the Snake Lingbao Bazaar has a high explosion rate? Have players swiped more than one? In fact, it's all survivorship bias

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Hello everyone, I'm Brother Xiao.

The Year of the Snake Lingbao Bazaar is in full swing, after a few days of accumulation, the players' small blessing coins have reached a certain accumulation number, and the official has also been open to receive rewards, Xiao Di observed that many players have brushed out the legendary rewards, and even some players already have legendary rewards, and actually brushed out a legend, which makes people wonder if the explosion rate is really high this time?

Legend has it that the skin is difficult to brush

Judging from the data provided by the official, in fact, the probability of the legendary reward has been clearly informed a long time ago, that is, 0.8%, which is actually quite low, which means that most players can actually only get the guaranteed epic reward. Some players may think that there are eight legendary skins this time, so this probability may be greater. In fact, this logic is not quite correct, because 0.8% is the probability of drawing the legendary prize pool, not the probability of drawing a single legendary skin, that is, after drawing the legendary prize pool with a probability of 0.8%, a legendary skin will be randomly given, as for the probability of these legendary skins, the official did not clearly inform them.

So, why do you see so many players getting the Legendary skin? This is actually survivor bias, because the base of the king players is very large, even if it is a small probability, there will always be players who will draw, just like the "Little King Blessing" activity during the Chinese New Year, there are always more than ten players who win the first prize, but these players who have been drawn will be happy to share, and the vast majority of them are still players who have not been drawn.

Taking Brother Xiao's own account as an example, the current number of refreshes has come to 110 times, and it stands to reason that after reaching level 6 90 times, there is a 0.8% probability of drawing the legendary skin each time, but these 20 times have not been drawn, and the best reward during the period is to draw 4 points treasure coupons in the epic prize pool with a probability of 2.5%, which is mainly because the epic prize pool skin of Brother Xiao's account is basically owned.

Legend has it that the skin can be brushed multiple times

Before, Brother Xiao also saw a highly praised problem, that is, the order was too fast, and the legendary skin that was brushed was not replaced, and he accidentally brushed it away, and I wanted to know if I could brush the legendary skin again? In fact, Brother Xiao has already told the answer to this question at the beginning of the article, that is, it can be refreshed completely, because there are really players who have refreshed the legendary skin many times, and even began to face the problem of which one to choose.

The reason for this is not complicated, because the probability of the legendary prize pool is fixed at 0.8%, so no matter how many times you have refreshed it currently, whether you have brushed out the legendary skin and what the current reward is, this probability will not change, so theoretically, as long as you are lucky, it is entirely possible to brush out a variety of legendary skins, but luck cannot be grasped, so what players can do is to give themselves as many refresh opportunities as possible, that is, to find a high price to sell small snake cakes for small blessing coins, and it is best to sell it every time it is 999.

The above is all the content, if you think it's not bad, you might as well like it and support it, if there is anything else you want to say, what you want to ask, what you want to see, leave footprints in the comment area, you will see it~

I don't know anything, I don't know anything; I'm Brother Xiao, let's chat!

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