With only five BO3 matches left in the first stage of the LCK, the super week is approaching. In the last match day, T1 battled BFX in a tough three-game series to secure their fourth consecutive win. Although T1 won, the process was far from easy. In the decider, BFX’s coach made questionable choices, letting Lee’s Galio through, then also allowing Keria’s Bard, and even Doran got Kha’Zix—BFX’s tank lineup was completely countered.

A few days ago, after HLE lost to T1, in the post-game voice chat, Xiaolübu told Hongmi that Bard can't help Keria win. After letting Bard through, HLE was thoroughly defeated. BFX’s coach learned nothing and still let the opponents pick their strongest champions in the deciding game—no wonder they lost. On the same day, KT faced BRO in another three-game series. KT won, securing their second victory of the season.

Both groups have a 1-1 record again, tying the group standings once more. In the Ancient Dragon group, the teams are fairly balanced; even the weakest DRX has claimed its first win. Among the remaining four teams, DK leads with 3 points, while BFX, HLE, and KT each have 2. In the Baron group, GEN and T1 are carrying the team with four straight wins each, while the other three teams have only contributed 2 points combined. BRO has lost all four matches so far.

The LCK Cup format this year is that the group with higher points (the winners' group) sends its top two teams directly to the playoffs, while the other three teams enter the qualifiers. The group with fewer points (the losers' group) sends its first-place team to the playoffs, teams ranked 2nd to 4th go to the qualifiers, and the last-place team is eliminated immediately. Since the point gap remains narrow, the final five matches and the super week are crucial, with each BO5 win awarding 2 points.

In the last five matches, the two groups are still expected to remain close. DK has no chance against T1, and HLE likely can’t beat GEN. DNS definitely cannot win against BFX, and NS is weaker compared to KT. If this scenario plays out, the two groups will remain tied, and the final standings will hinge on the results between BRO and DRX. If BRO wins, the Baron group leads the Ancient Dragon group by one point, and vice versa.

The final rankings will depend on the super week BO5 matches. GEN and T1 have nothing to worry about; the Baron group will at least add four points. However, the remaining three teams will likely hold the group back. BRO can’t beat anyone, DNS is in a similar situation, and NS’s results depend on their opponents. If these three lose all their matches, even if T1 and GEN finish with six wins, one of them will still have to play in the qualifiers—most likely T1 due to their poorer game score.

Of course, it’s too early to make definitive predictions. Maybe NS will step up and help the Baron group win a match. If NS wins three games, the Baron group will definitely be the winners' group. In that case, HLE’s situation could become precarious. Currently, HLE has a 2-2 record and will almost certainly lose their final match against GEN. KT and BFX, tied with HLE, face DNS and NS next, and if they maintain form, they are likely to win.

The bottom-ranked DRX faces BRO, with a fair chance to win. If all three teams win, HLE will be last in the Ancient Dragon group. Being last means HLE’s super week opponents will be one of DNS, NS, or BRO. If it’s DNS or BRO, HLE has a high chance of winning, but if NS steps up, HLE might lose, meaning they’ll only appear in the second stage.

Conclusion:

More than half the schedule has passed, yet the two groups remain neck and neck. T1 and GEN have been badly let down by BRO; had BRO won even one match, the Baron group would be leading now. NS and DNS have also underperformed, earning only one point so far. If these three teams don’t improve during super week, T1 will truly have to play in the qualifiers. Such a scenario would be very tough to handle.

So, do you think HLE still has a chance to advance?

Feel free to leave your thoughts and join the discussion!