Only three best-of-five matches remain in the LCK first split super week. On the previous matchday, DNS faced BFX. Given the significant strength gap between these two teams, the series ended in just four games with BFX winning and gaining 2 points for the Ancient Dragon Group. The point difference between the two groups has now widened to 4. If the Elder Dragon Group continues to lose, the Ancient Dragon Group will become the winners' bracket.

The Elder Dragon Group is currently in a very awkward position. After two consecutive losses in the super week, their points have fallen far behind. The BO5 between NS and KT is essentially a do-or-die match for T1. If NS wins, the Elder Dragon Group can narrow the gap to 2 points. If GEN and T1 both win all their matches, the Elder Dragon Group can lead by 2 points and claim the winners' bracket. But if NS loses to KT, no matter how T1 and GEN perform later, the winners' bracket will belong to the Ancient Dragon Group.

Honestly, the LCK Cup format is quite ruthless. Despite T1’s 4-0 start, their direct advancement to the playoffs depends heavily on other teams’ results. NS’s strength is somewhat inferior to KT’s. Although NS has three international FMVP players, Kingen and Lehends are both in poor form, and although their younger teammate has improved, he can’t carry the team alone. Personally, I feel KT will win this BO5, and likely by a large margin.

If NS loses, T1’s chances of direct playoff qualification will be very slim. GEN has won all four matches 2-0, with a high game score difference of 8. Although T1 is also 4-0, they lost three games in small score, trailing GEN by 3 points. To secure first place in the group, they have no hope relying on small scores and must hope GEN loses to HLE and that T1 beats DK to gain a lead through match wins.

The problem now is that HLE is performing terribly; they couldn’t even beat NS in the group stage. They went to three games against the bottom teams BRO and DNS. Expecting them to beat GEN is unrealistic, so it’s better to place hopes on NS. The Elder Dragon Group’s poor situation is largely NS’s fault. When choosing teams, T1 picked NS but NS counterpicked DNS. If they had picked BFX instead, the Elder Dragon Group wouldn’t be in such trouble.

BRO was left over from the Ancient Dragon Group’s picks, so there was no choice there. But NS’s move was really shocking. Two teams going 4-0 couldn’t carry the other three teams. It seems the Ancient Dragon Group must be grinning widely; even without effort, HLE leads in points. Who can T1 and GEN complain to? NS now must fight desperately to make up for their drafting mistake, or T1 will suffer badly from this choice.

On the other hand, if T1 does end up in the play-in stage, the following LCK matches might attract more attention. This format seems quite friendly for viewers who enjoy watching T1. Compared to last year, the play-in format has been improved. With a double-elimination BO5, T1 won’t be eliminated after just one loss; they have a safety net and must lose twice to miss the playoffs.

However, it’s not completely hopeless. If NS manages to defeat KT, then T1 and GEN can both advance to the playoffs. Although this chance is slim, it’s not impossible. KT’s strength has declined compared to last year after changing their bot lane duo. As long as Scout can keep BDD locked in mid and avoid being broken through, NS still has hope. But Kingen also needs to step up.

Conclusion:

Starting 4-0 undefeated but still needing others' results to advance, T1 really picked a tough partner. But at this point, there’s no use dwelling on it. Who would have expected NS, with three international FMVPs, to be weaker than BFX? T1 was probably fooled by NS’s paper strength.

So, what do you think? What are NS’s chances of beating KT?

Feel free to leave your comments and join the discussion!