In the first stage group matches of the LPL, only four Bo3s remain before the regular season ends and the Spring Festival break begins. On the previous match day, EDG shut out WE in their final game to claim their fourth victory of the season. Despite tying WE in total wins, EDG failed to enter the first round of the Knights’ Path. If NIP manages a clean sweep over TT, they will also reach four wins with a superior small score, thus securing a spot in the first round.

Another match on the same day was AL versus WBG, a Bo3 that determined whether Weibo could secure a direct playoff spot. The two teams battled fiercely through three games, with WBG narrowly losing to AL due to a crucial misstep. If JDG doesn’t push hard and Weibo loses again to IG in their final match, the fourth playoff spot might go to TT instead. In this Bo3, Weibo had a real chance, even leading by 7K gold in the decider before being overturned.

In the first game, ELK was in top form, leading Kaisa to 17 kills and securing the opening win. In the second game, the top, mid, and jungle all underperformed, allowing AL to even the series. In the deciding game, both teams engaged in intense draft battles. Weibo picked Varus, while AL confused opponents by selecting multiple Wolves. Eventually, Varus and Wolves both went top lane, where Zika was caught in a one-for-one trade. ELK then secured kills in lane, and during the Rift Herald fight, Varus took down three kills in a row.

At 10 minutes, AL trailed 1:5 in kills and Weibo held a 1.8K gold lead. By 19 minutes, Weibo secured the Herald Dragon and extended their gold advantage to 6K. At this point, many thought Weibo had the game in hand and stopped watching. However, the unexpected happened: in the Dragon Soul fight, Weibo’s small dragon was stolen, and AL turned the team fight around with a 2-for-5 trade, cutting the gold gap to just 1K. A similar scenario repeated in subsequent fights.

At 23 minutes, a team fight broke out mid lane. AL’s support was instantly killed, but the remaining four traded two kills before being wiped out. In the following Dragon Soul fight, Weibo secured the dragon, but ELK was singled out and eliminated by Saint’s sniping. AL then executed a flawless 5-for-0 team fight to end the game. Blowing such a huge lead was truly baffling. Zika’s Varus started 4-1 but was completely dominated during team fights by Saint’s sniping.

Honestly, ELK was quite unlucky. In that mid-lane team fight, he had a chance to take down Caitlyn’s Guardian Angel, which could have created opportunities for the team. However, his two most critical shots both failed to crit: the first hit Caitlyn but didn’t crit, leaving her on a sliver of health; the second shot followed a flash but again didn’t crit, failing to break the Guardian Angel and resulting in ELK being counter-killed. Such bad luck is hard to believe.

During that team fight, ELK had built Infinity Edge, Rapid Firecannon, Phantom Dancer, and a Serrated Dirk, stacking up to a 95% critical strike chance. With such a high crit rate, missing crits on two consecutive shots is almost unheard of—Zhao’s luck was truly extraordinary. If ELK had managed to take down Hope’s Guardian Angel, Akali and Nocturne could have dived Caitlyn in the following fights, likely eliminating her. Without Caitlyn’s ultimate, Weibo might have had a chance to turn the game around.

Looking ahead to the match against IG, Weibo must strive for a win. As long as they win, regardless of the score, they will secure a direct playoff spot. But if they lose, especially if IG sweeps them and TT beats JDG 2-0, the playoff spot could go to TT. Personally, I believe Weibo is already through—they nearly defeated AL in a full series and beating IG shouldn’t be a big problem, plus JDG isn’t an easy opponent either.

Conclusion:

AL, who defeated Weibo, now stands at 7 wins and 2 losses. Their final match against BLG will decide the regular season’s top spot. This Bo3 should be exciting, as both teams have recently regained form. It’s likely to go the full three games, but predicting the winner is tough. In the top lane matchup, Bin is definitely harder to deal with than Zika. It remains to be seen if Saint can hold up under pressure.

So, who do you think will make the playoffs, Weibo or TT?

Feel free to leave your thoughts and join the discussion!