Foreword: The S16 season has officially begun. I believe the vast majority of players have been following the recent competitions. Matches across all regions are being held intensely. During this time, there has been a lot of discussion about IG. As a highly popular team in the LPL, everyone hopes they can achieve better results, even representing the LPL in the World Championship. Recently, LPL official caster Huainan provided a very detailed analysis of IG's overall situation. He said that their probability of advancing is almost zero. In the easiest scenario, they need to win four BO5s; in the hardest, they need to win seven BO5s.

Most detailed analysis of IG's World Championship qualification

I believe the vast majority of players are very familiar with IG. As a top-tier team in the LPL, they have had very high popularity and attention in the past two years. Last season, they assembled a super team lineup, secured a World Championship spot for the LPL, but in their first match they encountered another team and became the only team in history to finish 17th at Worlds. After that one-and-done performance, IG underwent a roster reshuffle. The departure of several core players caused their results to plummet in the first and second splits. In the third split, the return of midlaner Rookie and toplaner TheShy boosted the team's popularity, but their performance was mediocre, only finishing second in the Phoenix Group.

As the Knight's Path is about to begin, discussions about IG are increasing. Recently, LPL official caster Huainan provided the most detailed analysis of all possible outcomes for IG. There are seven possibilities. If they lose to TT on the Knight's Path, they will be directly eliminated from Worlds. Winning one BO5 would get them to the quarterfinals, but still not qualify for Worlds.

The third possibility offers a chance. After winning two BO5s, if in the winners' bracket first round TES beats LGD, and in the losers' bracket IG beats LGD in the first round. Additionally, in the other half, NIP does not reach the semifinals, and EDG does not reach the top six. All three conditions must be met. Then IG enters the losers' bracket of the qualifier, otherwise they are out of Worlds.

The fourth possibility is winning three BO5s. If at that point LGD, NIP, and EDG have not made it to the semifinals, then IG enters the losers' bracket of the qualifier. If LGD consecutively beats TES and AL, or if LGD, NIP, and EDG all reach the semifinals and defeat IG, then IG will be out of Worlds.

The fifth possibility is that IG wins four BO5s. At minimum, they will enter the losers' bracket of the qualifier, and may even enter the winners' bracket.

The sixth possibility is that IG finishes as the LPL runner-up, winning five BO5s. At this point, their probability of advancing is very high. In certain circumstances, IG might even qualify as the LPL's second seed, entering the World Championship without needing to go through the play-in stage.

Finally, IG wins six BO5s and becomes champion, qualifying as the LPL's first seed.

Considering all possibilities, IG needs to win at least four BO5s to qualify for Worlds, and at most seven BO5s. Moreover, their opponents will be very strong. To summarize: finishing 10th to 8th means no chance at all; finishing 6th is extremely difficult and can hardly qualify for the play-in stage; finishing 4th still depends on other teams' results; finishing 3rd guarantees at least a spot in the qualifier; being runner-up gives a small chance to enter Worlds; winning the championship secures the slot directly.

Zai Jian believes

Based on the current situation of IG, their probability of advancing is quite slim. Even official caster Miller gave IG a very low evaluation. They do have good advantages in the laning phase, but various problems arise during the teamfight stage. Therefore, fans should not have high hopes. For IG, being able to play matches is already satisfying. Even if they manage to get a Worlds spot, their performance is unlikely to be very good.

What do you, dear viewers, think about this?