Issue 25138 football victory lottery, Bayern marches ahead strongly, Espanyol remains steady, Benfica should be cautious

1 Ciburo--Lecce

The home team is currently in seventh place, with six matches played resulting in three wins, one draw, and two losses. At home, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 7 goals while conceding 6. Their overall performance is decent, but the recent two consecutive defeats indicate a decline in form. The home record is just mediocre, and the opponent's strength is relatively weak.

The visiting team remains one of the top forces in the English Championship, currently fourth with three wins, two draws, and one loss in six matches. Their away record is one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 8 goals and conceding 5. Their offense is strong, though the defense is somewhat weaker.

The data slightly favors the home team, but the support is weak and lacks solid basis, especially since the visitor's strength significantly exceeds that of the home team. This match feels somewhat unusual.

First home win, next away win

2 Bayern--Bremen

Home win

3 Darmstadt--Dresden

The home team currently leads the table, ranked first with four wins, one draw, and one loss in six matches. At home, they have two wins and one draw without defeat, scoring 11 goals and conceding 5. Their performance is very strong, and their home strength is impressive.

The visiting team is currently fourteenth, with one win, two draws, and three losses in six matches. Away, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 9 goals but conceding 11. Although they have conceded many goals, their recent two draws were against strong opponents ranked third and fourth, both ending 2-2, showing decent offensive capability. The quality of these results is relatively high.

The data supports the home team, but the strength of this support is somewhat insufficient given the current form of both sides. The visitor’s away performance is not particularly weak either.

First home win, next draw

4 Schalke--Fürth

The home team ranks fifth with four wins and two losses in six matches, including two wins and one loss at home. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 4, with decent offense and defense. Their two losses were narrow, by one goal each.

The visiting team is tenth with three wins and three losses in six matches. Away, they have two wins and one loss, scoring 13 goals but conceding 15. Overall, the visitors play aggressively with strong offense but very loose defense.

The data favors the home team, but the support is not very strong. Given the visitor’s attacking power, it is hard to say there will be any surprises.

First home win, next away win

5 Girona--Espanyol

The home team is currently at the bottom, but given their overall strength, this is unexpected. They have no wins, two draws, and four losses in six matches, with no wins, no draws, and three losses at home. They have scored 3 goals and conceded 16, showing a clear gap in offense and defense. Their home form is very poor with three losses. The two draws were away against decent opponents, Bilbao and Celta.

The visiting team has performed explosively since the start, currently fourth with three wins, two draws, and one loss in six matches. Away, they have no wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 10 goals and conceding 9. Their offense is good but defense is problematic, and their away form is weak.

The data shows no clear bias. Given the current form, the data lacks convincing power. However, fundamentally, the home team’s strength is still far inferior to the visitor’s.

First home win, next away win

6 Strasbourg--Marseille

The home team ranks fourth, with four wins and one loss in five matches. Their only loss was a 2-3 away defeat to Monaco. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 5, showing strong offense and defense, and their home form is solid.

The visiting team ranks sixth with three wins and two losses in five matches. Both losses were away against Rennes and Lyon, teams of average strength. This suggests the visitor is strong at home but weak away. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 4 overall, but the two away defeats were goalless for them, indicating away matches might be a psychological barrier.

The data supports the visitor, but the strength of this support is limited, and the home team’s home advantage is not clearly visible.

First away win, next home win

7 Nancy--Lens

The home team ranks sixth, with three wins, one draw, and two losses in six matches. They have scored and conceded 8 goals each. Their offense is acceptable, but defense is somewhat fragile. Their home record includes one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring and conceding 3 goals.

The visiting team ranks fifth, with three wins, one draw, and two losses in six matches. Away, they have no wins, one draw, and two losses, scoring 9 goals and conceding 7. Their overall record is nearly equal to the home team’s. In four away matches, they scored 5 and conceded 8, showing defensive weaknesses.

The data supports the visiting team, but the support is weak. The visitor’s defense has gaps, and the home team’s offense is not sharp.

Draw

8 Clermont--Le Mans

The home team ranks tenth, with two wins, two draws, and two losses in six matches. Their overall performance is average. At home, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 5 goals and conceding 7, showing weaknesses in both offense and defense.

The visiting team ranks eleventh, with two wins, one draw, and three losses in six matches. Away, they have no wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6, also showing average offense and defense.

The data shows no obvious bias. Considering the current form of both sides, neither has a clear edge, though the home team’s home form is slightly stronger than the visitor’s.

First draw, next home win

9 Grenoble--Bastia

The home team is seventeenth, with one win, two draws, and three losses in six matches. At home, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 5 goals and conceding 8, indicating weak offense and defense.

The visiting team is eighteenth, with no wins, one draw, and five losses in six matches. Away, they have no wins, one draw, and three losses, scoring 3 goals and conceding 10.

The data shows no clear preference but slightly overestimates the visitor. Given both teams’ current form, the visitor is unlikely to win easily.

Draw

10 Rodez--Pau FC

The home team’s form is not better than the visitor’s, but the data supports the home side. Although the support is modest, it is somewhat generous given the home team’s current situation.

First home win, next away win

11 Troyes--Annecy

The home team has received support and is overall stronger than the visitor, with a more stable home performance.

Home win

12 Twente--Fortuna

Both sides have similar form overall. Although the home team is stronger, the data’s handicap is too large and seems excessive.

First home win, next draw

13 Oss--Roda JC

The home team has performed well recently and their form has improved. The visitor has played fairly well overall but lacks full consistency.

The data supports the visitor, but the strength of support is limited. Attention should also be paid to the home team’s defensive capabilities.

First away win, next draw

14 Benfica--Gil Vicente

The home team is strong but has had two consecutive draws at home. The visitor’s overall strength is weaker, but they have performed well, especially showing some fighting spirit away from home.

The data gives absolute support to the home team but somewhat neglects the visitor’s strong performance.

First home win, next draw