Supercomputer predicts surprising outcome for MU vs Brentford match

The Opta supercomputer recently forecasted the result of the Brentford vs Man United game, part of the 6th round of the 2025/26 Premier League season.

Brentford vs Man Utd prediction

According to the Opta supercomputer, home advantage will still play a role. Brentford is rated higher, with a 48% chance to secure all 3 points.

Man United only won in 26% of 10,000 simulations, with the probability of a draw being similarly close.

Brentford vs Man Utd: Key information

Manchester United achieved an important victory against Chelsea in the Premier League last weekend and will aim to continue this positive momentum when they travel to Brentford’s ground at 18:30 on September 27 (Vietnam time).

After a somewhat shaky start to the 2025/26 season, the hard-fought 2-1 win over The Blues marks the Red Devils’ first time winning two consecutive home games in a single season and under the same manager since December 2023 (under Erik ten Hag).

Now, Ruben Amorim aims to achieve back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time in his tenure. However, this will be challenging as Man United have struggled away from Old Trafford, especially in London. They have gone 7 away games without a win in the Premier League (2 draws, 5 losses) since their 3-0 victory over Leicester City in March 2025. The last worse streak was from March to October 2019 (8 games).

MU has also lost 15 of their last 24 trips to the capital (3 wins, 6 draws), including a 1-1 draw against Fulham just before the international break. Prior to this run, they remained unbeaten in 13 consecutive matches in London from February 2020 to January 2022 (8 wins, 5 draws).

Amorim’s goal is to help his squad improve their chance conversion, as the team creates many opportunities but the efficiency is lacking. Man Utd currently have the highest number of shots in the Premier League this season (81), averaging 16.2 shots per game, up from 13.9 last season. Their expected goals (xG) metric has also risen from 1.3 to 2.0, but they have only scored 6 goals, including 2 own goals.

Conversely, Brentford have taken the fewest shots in the league (41) but have scored the same number of goals (6). The biggest issue for Keith Andrews’ side is the defense. The “Bees” have conceded 10 goals in 5 matches, the worst defensive record at this stage since the 2003/04 season when they were in the third tier.

Only Burnley (95) has faced more shots than Brentford (70) this season, and their defensive frailty has cost them dearly. The team has dropped 8 points from winning positions, scoring the opening goal in 4 matches but winning only once (drawing once, losing twice). This pattern has repeated in the last 3 games, including a 1-3 loss to Fulham last weekend despite an early goal from Damsgaard.

With just 4 points from 5 rounds (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), this is Brentford’s worst start in Premier League history at this point. They enter round 6 hovering just above the relegation zone.

This weekend, Brentford will face familiar opponent Bryan Mbeumo. Only Erling Haaland (21) has more shots than the Cameroonian player (15) in the Premier League this season. This is also the highest number of shots by a United player in their first 5 games since Antony in 2022 (18 shots).

On the other hand, the visitors will be without Casemiro due to suspension after a red card against Chelsea, while Lisandro Martínez remains injured. Diogo Dalot returned to full training on Tuesday and is likely to be available for selection.

Head-to-head history Brentford vs Man Utd

Brentford have won two of their last three home Premier League matches against Man Utd (drawing one), matching their total wins from the first six encounters (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses).

Since Man United’s 3-1 win at Brentford in January 2022, the hosts have won 6 of the last 7 Premier League meetings (drawing 1).

The Red Devils also risk losing to Brentford in consecutive league games for only the third time in history, following a 3-4 defeat at Gtech last May. The previous two occurrences were in the Second Division in December 1934 and the First Division in February 1937.

Expected lineups Brentford vs Man Utd

• Brentford: Caoimhín Kelleher, Michael Kayode, Sepp van den Berg, Nathan Collins, Ethan Pinnock, Keane Lewis-Potter, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Jordan Henderson, Mikkel Damsgaard, Kevin Schade, Igor Thiago.
• Manchester United: Altay Bayindir, Matthijs de Ligt, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Noussair Mazraoui, Patrick Dorgu, Manuel Ugarte, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.

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