Issue 25139 football victory lottery, Crystal Palace targets Liverpool, Real Madrid may secure first draw, Manchester City without worries

1 Chelsea vs Brighton

The home side is temporarily sixth with a record of two wins, two draws, and one loss after five league games. Their performance is mediocre. Last round, they won away against a Manchester United side not in good form. Despite summer reinforcements, results have not met expectations. Manchester United is the only somewhat stronger team in this league; others are of average strength. They have scored 10 and conceded 5 goals. Besides a 5-1 thrashing of West Ham, their attacking force has not been particularly effective.

The away team ranks 14th and overall is much weaker than last season. After five matches, they have one win, two draws, and two losses, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their defense is relatively poor. They lost twice away, with away performance being average, scoring 1 and conceding 4, showing weak ability on the road.

The data slightly favors the home team, though the support is not strong. It is believed they will adjust after two unfavorable results in a row.

Home win

2 Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

The home team has started the season very well, currently fifth, with two wins and three draws in five matches, remaining unbeaten. They have faced strong teams like Aston Villa and Chelsea, so their results are credible. Their goal difference is 6 scored and 2 conceded, showing strength both offensively and defensively, especially in defense. Two home draws were also valuable. Their overall playing style is very pragmatic.

The visitors have begun the season like champions, winning all five league games with a goal difference of 11 scored and 5 conceded. However, their away wins include a narrow 1-0 victory over Burnley and a tight 3-2 win over Newcastle. Though victorious, these were hard-fought matches.

The data supports the away team, but the margin is small. The visitors’ aggressive pressing style will likely give the home team considerable counterattack opportunities.

First draw, then away win

3 Leeds vs Bournemouth

The home team is ranked twelfth, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in five matches. At home, they have one win and one draw without defeat. They scored 4 and conceded 7 goals. The high number of goals conceded is mainly due to an away loss to Arsenal; other matches were relatively normal, mostly narrow defeats by one goal. They also kept a clean sheet against Newcastle at home.

The away team is fourth, continuing their good form from last season. After five matches, they have three wins, one draw, and one loss. The only loss was a 2-4 defeat away to Liverpool, though they scored twice in that game. They also kept strong defensive performances against Tottenham and Newcastle. Their goal difference is 6 scored and 5 conceded, with the four goals conceded all coming in the Liverpool match; other games showed solid defense.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the away team. It will likely be difficult for the visitors to take all three points.

Draw

4 Manchester City vs Burnley

Home win

5 Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland

The home side does not seem as strong as last season, with one win, two draws, and two losses in five matches, showing mediocre performance. They have scored 5 and conceded 9 goals. They played a midweek Europa League match, which could be a burden for them.

The visitors rank seventh, which is remarkable for a newly promoted team. Notably, in the last game, despite being reduced to ten men, they managed a draw against Aston Villa, indicating strong home resilience. After five matches, they have two wins, two draws, and one loss. Away, they have no wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 6 and conceding 4 overall. Their away results include a draw with Crystal Palace and a loss to Burnley, showing some weakness on the road.

The data supports the home team strongly, but considering their current form and morale, the visitors might be underestimated.

First home win, then away win

6 Tottenham Hotspur vs Wolves

The home team ranks third with three wins, one draw, and one loss in five matches, performing well overall. They have scored 10 and conceded 3, maintaining good offense and defense.

The visitors have lost all matches so far, which is surprising. Their goal difference is 3 scored and 12 conceded, showing imbalance between attack and defense.

The data strongly favors the home team. Although in the past two seasons, the home side seemed passive against the visitors, this season’s squad strength suggests it is time to overcome that mental block.

Home win

7 Mainz vs Dortmund

The home team is ranked thirteenth, with one win, one draw, and two losses in four league matches. Both losses happened at home. Their goal difference is 5 scored and 4 conceded. Notably, they surprised by winning 4-1 away against a good Augsburg side last round, but it is too early to say their form has fully recovered.

The visitors are second, just two points behind Bayern, indicating a familiar two-team title race this season. After four matches, they have three wins and one draw, with the draw being a 3-3 away tie against St. Pauli. Their goal difference is 9 scored and 3 conceded, with all three goals allowed in one match; the rest were clean sheets, showing strong defense.

The data supports the visitors but not strongly. Given both teams’ current states, this support seems conservative and insufficient.

Away win

8 St. Pauli vs Leverkusen

As a modest team with a total squad value just over 30 million, St. Pauli’s fifth place is impressive. After four matches, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss, with the loss coming away to Stuttgart last round. Overall, their performance is quite good, scoring 7 and conceding 6, showing strong attack but average defense.

Leverkusen ranks eleventh, a big drop compared to recent seasons, suffering significant losses. After four matches, they have one win, two draws, and one loss, performing moderately. Perhaps their previous high achievements raised fan expectations too much. Their goal difference is 8 scored and 7 conceded, with defense being a notable issue this season.

The data slightly favors the visitors but only minimally. Based on strength, this support is weak, yet it aligns with their current form.

First away win, then home win

9 Wolfsburg vs Leipzig

The home team is twelfth with one win, two draws, and one loss in four matches, showing average form. The loss was against Dortmund, their strongest opponent. Their wins and draws came against mid-level teams, indicating they are not yet ready for tough battles but can compete with lower-ranked sides. Goal difference is 7 scored and 6 conceded.

The visitors rank third, seemingly back in their usual position. After four matches, they have three wins and one loss, with the loss in the first round against Bayern. Their goal difference is 6 scored and 8 conceded; notably, they conceded six goals against Bayern but have otherwise maintained decent defense.

The data shows no clear bias, but with the visitors on a three-game winning streak, their form is excellent.

First away win, then draw

10 Monchengladbach vs Frankfurt

The home team sits 17th in the relegation zone, with two draws and two losses in four matches, yet no wins. They drew away to Leverkusen last round, showing slight improvement. Their goal difference is 1 scored and 6 conceded, highlighting problems in attack and defense.

The visitors are sixth, with two wins and two losses in four matches. They have lost their last two games, including a 3-4 home defeat to Union Berlin, showing unstable form. Their goal difference is 11 scored and 9 conceded, with good attack but weak defense.

The data favors the visitors, but this support is insufficient given both teams’ current form and the visitors’ instability.

First home win, then away win

11 Juventus vs Atalanta

The home team has been performing well and steadily this season, currently second. After four matches, they have three wins and one loss. Their only dropped points came in a 1-1 away draw with Verona last round. Their goal difference is 7 scored and 4 conceded, with solid offense and defense. Especially notable is their 4-3 home win over Inter Milan, showing strong home presence.

The visitors rank fifth, with two wins and two draws in four matches. They remain unbeaten but dropped points early with two draws against weaker teams, losing momentum before winning two consecutive matches to get on track. Their goal difference is 9 scored and 3 conceded.

The data strongly supports the home team, but the visitors’ defensive capabilities should not be overlooked.

First draw, then home win

12 Cagliari vs Inter Milan

The home team is seventh, with two wins, one draw, and one loss in four matches, performing well overall. Their goal difference is 5 scored and 3 conceded, with solid defense.

The visitors are tenth and seem out of form this season. After four matches, they have two wins and two losses, losing to Juventus and Udinese. Their goal difference is 11 scored and 7 conceded. Their attack remains effective, but defense has weakened significantly.

The data supports the visitors, which is reasonable given their strength. Their recent 2-0 away win over Ajax in the Champions League may help restore confidence.

Away win

13 Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

The home team has not performed well since the season began, currently eighth. After six rounds, they have two wins, three draws, and one loss. At home, they have two wins and one draw, scoring 9 and conceding 7 goals. Too many draws have affected their ranking, but their home form is decent, with a 6-3 goal difference. Their defense, however, remains unstable.

The visitors have maintained good form, leading the table with a perfect winning record in six matches, scoring 14 and conceding 3. Their attack and defense are both excellent. Recently, rumors surfaced about friction between a key player and the coach, which might have some impact. They have conceded only 2 goals in three away matches, showing strong away strength.

The data shows no clear preference but slightly favors the visitors. Based on current form, the home team’s defense is decent though their attack is weaker than the visitors’. The visitors’ strong offense overwhelms opponents lacking sufficient strength.

First away win, then draw

14 Villarreal vs Bilbao

The home team is third, with four wins, one draw, and one loss in six matches. At home, they are undefeated with three wins, scoring 12 and conceding 5 overall. Their only loss was a 0-2 away defeat to Atletico Madrid. Overall, their performance is very good, especially at home, with a 9-1 goal difference, though opponents were relatively weak, their home strength is undeniable.

The visitors rank sixth with three wins, one draw, and two losses in six matches. Away, they have one win and one loss, scoring 7 and conceding 7 goals. Their two losses saw a 2-3 goal difference, indicating some deficiency in away performance.

The data supports the home team slightly, but not strongly. Based on strength, the support is excessive; based on form, it is insufficient.

First home win, then draw