Supercomputer predicts the outcome of the Chelsea vs Benfica match

Chelsea is favored by the Opta supercomputer system when hosting Benfica in the UEFA Champions League, scheduled for 2:00 AM on October 1st (Vietnam time).

Supercomputer forecast for Chelsea vs Benfica result

The Opta supercomputer rates Chelsea as the favorite with a 56.8% chance of victory. Benfica’s chances of winning stand at just 21.1%, while the draw probability is 22.1%.

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace preview: Mourinho’s emotional reunion

Mourinho began his coaching career at Benfica and was recently reappointed at Estádio da Luz earlier this month, after Bruno Lage lost his job due to a shocking defeat against Qarabag in the opening round of the Champions League.

At 62 years old, Mourinho has faced his former club 14 times across all competitions but has only won 4 matches (3 draws, 7 losses). In fact, he hasn’t won in the last 7 encounters, with his last victory dating back to February 2018 when managing Manchester United to a 2-1 win over Chelsea in the Premier League.

Mourinho had a memorable return to Stamford Bridge with Inter Milan in March 2010 with a historic win, but since then he has failed to win in 6 away visits there (2 draws, 4 losses).

Recent history also does not favor Benfica, as they have gone 8 consecutive matches without a win against English teams (3 draws, 5 losses). The last time the “Eagles” defeated an English club was 10 years ago when they beat Tottenham 3-1 in the Europa League. Even more concerning, Benfica has conceded goals in all 18 of their most recent games against English sides.

A surprising 2-3 home loss to Qarabag in the first round saw Benfica lose a 2-goal lead. This is the second time in 2025 they have lost such an advantage in the Champions League, following a 4-5 defeat to Barcelona in January.

On the other side, coach Enzo Maresca is seeking a boost in the Champions League for Chelsea, who have won only 1 of their last 5 matches across all competitions, that being a comeback 2-1 win over Lincoln City in the League Cup. A 1-3 loss to Brighton last weekend extended Chelsea’s winless streak to 3 matches in the Premier League (1 draw, 2 losses). In the Champions League, they started with a 1-3 defeat to Bayern Munich.

That loss extended Chelsea’s run to 3 consecutive defeats in the Champions League, marking a club record low. However, Stamford Bridge remains a stronghold as they are unbeaten in their last 11 home group stage matches (7 wins, 4 draws), since a 0-1 loss to Valencia in September 2019.

Notably, this will be the first time Chelsea and Benfica meet in the Champions League group stage. Their previous 4 encounters were all knockout rounds, most recently at the FIFA Club World Cup three months ago, where Chelsea won 4-1 after extra time.

Regarding squad availability, Chelsea will miss Cole Palmer (who scored their only goal against Bayern) along with Liam Delap, Levi Colwill, and Tosin Adarabioyo due to injuries. Benfica will be without Bruma because of an Achilles tendon injury.

Head-to-head history between Chelsea and Benfica

Chelsea has a superior record against Benfica, having won all 4 matches between them, scoring a total of 9 goals and conceding only 3.

Expected lineups for Chelsea vs Benfica

• Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Josh Acheampong, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Moisés Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Enzo Fernández, Estêvão, Pedro Neto, Tyrique George.
• Benfica: Anatoliy Trubin, Amar Dedic, António Silva, Nicolás Otamendi, Samuel Dahl, Richard Ríos, Enzo Barrenechea, Fredrik Aursnes, Heorhii Sudakov, Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis.

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