Supercomputer predicts surprising outcome for Chelsea vs Liverpool match

03/10/2025 16:40:00 VictoryVox

The Opta supercomputer forecasts the upcoming Premier League Round 7 clash, suggesting Liverpool has a higher chance of winning against Chelsea despite their recent difficult run.

Chelsea facing Liverpool is always one of the highlight matches regardless of the circumstances. However, the encounter at 11:30 PM on October 5 in Premier League Round 7 is even more notable as both teams are eager to secure a positive result.

According to Opta's computer, Liverpool has a 42.3% chance of beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, while the Blues' chances stand at 32.3%, with the remainder being the probability of a draw.

This prediction comes at a time when both teams are under significant pressure. Chelsea started the season unimpressively with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses after 6 rounds. Although they recently defeated Benfica in the Champions League, they have shown many weaknesses in the Premier League. The Blues' defense has lost stability, compounded by serious discipline issues such as Chalobah’s red card in the 1-3 loss to Brighton. Injuries and suspensions have also weakened Enzo Maresca’s squad, with players like Cole Palmer, Mudryk, Adarabioyo, Delap, and Colwill unavailable.

Opta's supercomputer predicts Liverpool has a 42.3% chance to win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge

On the other hand, Liverpool enters the match after two consecutive defeats to Crystal Palace and Galatasaray. Their defense has been disrupted by Alisson’s injury, forcing new signing Mamardashvili, who cost £25 million, to start in goal. Nevertheless, The Kops’ strength remains in their attack with Salah, Gakpo, and Isak. The midfield duo Szoboszlai and Mac Allister maintain pressure, pressing ability, and creativity in their play.

Regarding past encounters, Chelsea beat Liverpool 3-1 at Stamford Bridge late last season, ending a 10-match winless streak against them (5 draws, 5 losses). However, that victory came when Liverpool had already secured the title, whereas the current situation is different. Liverpool is still favored due to their squad quality and consistency in big games.

Liverpool lacks Alisson but still boasts a strong attack with Salah, Gakpo, and Isak

Opta also points out that this match is one of the most evenly matched in Premier League Round 7, second only to Everton vs Crystal Palace. Yet, with a 42.3% win probability from 10,000 simulations, Liverpool is clearly viewed as the stronger candidate to leave London with all three points.

A victory over the Blues would not only boost Arne Slot’s team morale after a series of poor results but also affirm their resilience in the title defense race. Conversely, another loss could mean Chelsea suffer three consecutive Premier League defeats for the first time since May 2023 — a scenario that would increase pressure on coach Maresca.

Thus, the Chelsea vs Liverpool showdown is not just a high-level contest but also a turning point for both teams, with Liverpool expected to edge ahead thanks to the supercomputer’s confidence and the attacking stars’ form.

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