The strongest defensive line factory in the Premier League, Arsenal ranks first with the lowest expected goals conceded per game at 0.65.

Winning the Premier League is extremely difficult, and over this lengthy competition, defense often determines the champion. Opta has tracked the expected goals conceded per game for all teams this season, showing Arsenal ranked first with 0.65 goals conceded on average.

Top 5 Premier League teams with the lowest expected goals conceded per game so far this season:

• First: Arsenal, 0.65 goals, the Premier League’s strongest defense along with solid bench strength.
• Second: Newcastle, 0.77 goals, backed by a midfield trio known as the “funeral” that provides strong protection.
• Third: Bournemouth, 0.94 goals, defying logic as four of their five main defensive players and goalkeeper have left this season, yet their defense remains solid—credit to the coach’s brilliance.
• Fourth: Manchester City, 1.13 goals, accelerating their attacking tempo this season, reducing pointless possession, and minimizing counterattack vulnerabilities.
• Fifth: Crystal Palace, 1.14 goals, a mature counter-attacking team and a tough opponent for stronger clubs.

In my opinion, this season is Arsenal’s best chance to win the title. Why? Because Manchester City is undergoing a transition between generations, Liverpool’s defense has been shaky, their many new forwards need time to gel, and Salah is declining. Therefore, with a solid defense and the addition of Jorginho as a battering ram, Arsenal is the most likely to realize their Premier League championship dream this season.