Issue 25141 of the football victory lottery: Villa defends their home ground, Everton dominates at home, Manchester City avoids a slip-up.

Happy holidays and good health to all!

1 Villa vs Burnley

The home team has 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 defeats in six games, with a home record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 4 and conceding 6 goals overall, which is underwhelming. Last round, they secured a 3-1 victory over Fulham, suggesting their form and confidence are on the rise. Yet, back-to-back matches have severely impacted their fitness. Given their defensive vulnerabilities plus the stamina disadvantage, uncertainty increases.

The away team has 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in six games, with no wins or draws in three away matches, scoring 6 and conceding 13 goals. Their only win and draw came at home, and the excessive goals conceded have made their defense very fragile.

The data strongly favors the home team, but considering overall conditions and fitness issues, the home side might not necessarily overcome their opponent.

First match: home win, second match: draw

2 Everton vs Crystal Palace

The home team currently ranks ninth, showing significant improvement from last season with a more pragmatic style. In six matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 2 draws, and no losses, scoring 7 and conceding 6 goals. Both defeats came away, while home matches remain unbeaten, showing solid home strength. Home goals scored and conceded are 3 and 1 respectively, indicating good offense and defense at home.

The away team has overcome last season's shortcomings and maintained good form this season, currently third place and a clear dark horse, reminiscent of their late last season performance. Six matches: 3 wins, 3 draws, no losses; away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, no losses; scoring 8 and conceding 3 goals. Their defense is especially strong, and last round they scored a late winner against Liverpool. They remain unbeaten away with 5 goals scored and 1 conceded in three away matches.

The data shows no strong bias but slightly favors the home team, supported by statistical evidence. The visitors should be cautious in this match.

First match: draw, second match: home win

3 Newcastle vs Nottingham

The home team’s performance this season is not impressive, currently fifteenth. In six matches, they have 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses; at home, 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses; scoring 4 and conceding 5 goals. Their offense and defense are insufficient, especially defensively. In three home games, two were against strong opponents, narrowly beating Wolves by one goal. Home goals scored and conceded stand at 4 and 5. Their three away matches all ended in draws with no goals scored.

The away team is also struggling this season, not as strong as last year, currently seventeenth. In six matches, 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses; away record: no wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; scoring 5 and conceding 10 goals. They have not won away and their defense is poor. Away goals scored and conceded are 2 and 5 respectively, showing weak away ability.

The data heavily supports the home team. Although this support may be somewhat excessive, the home side urgently needs a victory to stabilize morale.

Home win

4 Wolves vs Brighton

The home team currently ranks last, with six matches yielding no wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses; at home, no wins, no draws, and 3 losses; scoring 4 and conceding 13 goals, reflecting poor form and weak offense and defense. Their three home matches saw a goal tally of 3 scored and 10 conceded. Apart from Manchester City, the other two opponents were not strong, indicating this team is in a deep slump.

The away team is currently tenth, with six matches yielding 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; away record: 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses; scoring 9 and conceding 9 goals. Despite conceding many goals, they also score a lot, notably coming from behind last round to win 3-1 against Chelsea away. Their away goals scored and conceded are 4 and 5 respectively.

The data favors the away team, but given both teams’ current form, this support seems a bit understated.

First match: away win, second match: draw

5 Brentford vs Manchester City

The home team ranks thirteenth with a moderate performance. In six matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; at home, 2 wins, 1 draw, no losses; scoring 9 and conceding 11 goals. They rely on their home form, with home goals scored and conceded at 6 and 3, showing strong home ability, while their away form is poor.

The away team is seventh, and for a club of this size, their performance is somewhat disappointing. In six matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses; scoring 14 and conceding 6 goals. Their away record is 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with the only win being the first match against Wolves. Away goals scored and conceded are 6 and 3, with 4 goals coming from the Wolves game, indicating a decline in away strength.

The data supports the away team with considerable strength, but it is still insufficient. Coupled with their unstable away form, caution is advised for this match.

First match: away win, second match: home win

6 Stuttgart vs Heidenheim

The home team is currently fifth, with five matches yielding three wins and two losses, overall good form with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. They have won both home matches, scoring 3 and conceding none, showing very strong home capability.

The away team is second to last, with five matches yielding one win and four losses, scoring 4 and conceding 10 goals. They lost both away matches, scoring 1 and conceding 4, showing insufficient strength.

The data strongly supports the home team. Though they played a European match midweek, it is believed this will not prevent them from securing another win against a weaker opponent.

Home win

7 Hamburg vs Mainz

The home team is thirteenth, which is acceptable for a club with no Bundesliga ambitions. In five matches, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 2 and conceding 8 goals. At home, they have 1 win and 1 loss, scoring 2 and conceding 3.

The away team is fourteenth, weaker than the home side. In five matches, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 6 goals. Away, they have 1 win and 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Last round, they won 4-1 away against a well-performing Augsburg, showing strong away ability.

The data shows no clear preference but indirectly gives some credit to the home team, while somewhat neglecting the away team's strong away performance.

Away win

8 Monchengladbach vs Freiburg

The home team is eighteenth, which is unacceptable for a traditional Bundesliga club. In five matches, they have two draws and three losses without a win, scoring 5 and conceding 12 goals, showing significant problems in offense and defense. At home, they have one draw and two losses, scoring 4 and conceding 10. Last round, they lost 4-6 against Frankfurt, showing some attacking improvement but very poor defense.

The away team is eighth, with five matches yielding two wins, one draw, and two losses. After starting with two consecutive losses, they have remained unbeaten in the last three matches, scoring 9 and conceding 9 goals. Away, they have one win and one loss, scoring and conceding 4 goals each, with all four conceded goals coming in a match against Cologne due to carelessness.

The data shows no clear bias but still offers some hope to the home team, though this support lacks statistical backing and is somewhat risky. Possibly the away team’s midweek European match has affected their fitness. No other obvious weaknesses are apparent.

First match: away win, second match: draw

9 Fiorentina vs Roma

The home team is sixteenth, showing no sign of a strong team. In five matches, they have three draws and two losses without a win, scoring 3 and conceding 6 goals, reflecting weak attacking ability. Both home matches resulted in losses, scoring 2 and conceding 5 goals. Last round, they were held to a goalless draw by a newly promoted team away.

The away team ranks third, with five matches yielding four wins and one loss. The single loss was a surprise home defeat to Torino, scoring 5 and conceding only 1 goal overall. Their attack is not very strong but their defense is excellent, though opponents overall are not very strong. Away, they have two consecutive wins, scoring 2 and conceding none, showing efficiency.

The data shows no clear bias, slightly favoring the away team but without significant strength. This may be due to the home team historically not fearing the visitors at home. However, given the home team’s current form and weak attack and defense, it looks quite difficult.

Away win

10 Napoli vs Genoa

The home team ranks second, with five matches yielding four wins and one loss. The loss was away last round against AC Milan. They have scored 10 and conceded 5 goals, showing excellent offense and defense. Both home matches were wins, scoring 4 and conceding 2.

The away team is second to last, with five matches yielding two draws and three losses without a win, scoring 2 and conceding 7 goals, showing poor offense and defense. Away, they have one draw and one loss, scoring 2 and conceding 3.

The data strongly supports the home team, reflecting the current form of both sides. However, in recent seasons, the home team has been frequently held to draws by the visitors, giving the away team some psychological edge. Though hard to beat, the home team is also not easily defeated.

First match: home win, second match: draw

11 Juventus vs AC Milan

The home team currently ranks fourth, with five matches yielding three wins and two draws. The last two matches were draws, showing some dip in form. They have scored 9 and conceded 5 goals, with decent offense and defense. At home, they have two wins and one draw, scoring 7 and conceding 4, showing strong attacking ability but average defense. Their opponents include Inter Milan and Atalanta, indicating high-quality competition.

The away team ranks first, with five matches yielding four wins and one loss. Aside from the opening round loss to Cremonese, their performance has been stable, scoring 9 and conceding 3 goals. Their defense is very solid. Away, they have two straight wins, scoring 5 and conceding none, though the opponents were relatively weak, so the quality of these wins is limited.

The data shows no clear bias, which aligns with the current realistic situation of both teams.

First match: draw, second match: home win

12 Sevilla vs Barcelona

Away win

13 Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid

The home team is a master of draws, with six recent matches including five draws and one loss, scoring 6 and conceding 7 goals. They lost last round away to Elche. At home, they have three draws and one loss, scoring 3 and conceding 5.

The away team ranks fifth. Their season start wasn’t very strong, with six matches yielding three wins and three draws. Although unbeaten, too many draws have affected their ranking. They have scored 13 and conceded 7 goals. Notably, they recently won 5-0 against Real Madrid, which may mark a return to form. Away, they have two draws and one loss, which is somewhat disappointing, especially since their opponents were not especially strong, scoring 3 and conceding 4.

The data supports the away team, but not strongly enough. Given the home team’s situation, they will fight hard.

First match: draw, second match: away win

14 Lille vs Dortmund

The home team ranks sixth, with six matches yielding three wins, one draw, and two losses. They have lost the last two matches but stopped the decline timely by winning 1-0 away against Roma in a European match. They have scored 13 and conceded 9 goals. Their offense is good but defense mediocre. At home, they have two wins and one loss, scoring 3 and conceding 2.

The away team has five wins and one loss in six matches. The single loss was away against Marseille, a strong Ligue 1 team. They have scored 12 and conceded 4 goals. Away, they have two wins and one loss, scoring 7 and conceding 4, showing strong offense but somewhat unstable defense.

The data naturally favors the away team with considerable strength. The visitors should aim to establish an early advantage to prepare for their Champions League title defense.

First match: away win, second match: draw