What scenarios could lead the Vietnam national team to qualify for the 2027 Asian Cup finals?

Following the third matchday of the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers, the standings in Group F have become very tight.

Vietnam’s opportunities following the win against Nepal

The 3-1 home win against Nepal helped Coach Kim Sang Sik’s team maintain second place and continue chasing Malaysia in the race for a spot in the 2027 Asian Cup finals. With 6 points and a +5 goal difference, Vietnam holds a significant advantage if the two teams end up tied on points later on.

In the upcoming match on October 14th, Vietnam will again play at home, hosting Nepal in the fourth round. If they secure all 3 points, the red-shirted team will reach 9 points, temporarily matching Malaysia’s tally (Malaysia will play afterwards). This is a crucial chance for Vietnam to make a turning point in the competition.

Malaysia faces the threat of FIFA point deductions

Despite being in excellent form with a perfect 9 points and no goals conceded, Malaysia is under threat of sanctions from FIFA due to a scandal involving naturalized players who have not completed nationality procedures. Regional media report that seven of these players might be ineligible to have participated in the previous wins against Nepal and Vietnam.

If FIFA confirms violations, Malaysia could forfeit one or more matches, resulting in point deductions. In that case, Vietnam would become the leader of Group F. This situation has happened before to some teams in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers when FIFA strictly enforced rules regarding the eligibility of naturalized players.

Scenarios for Vietnam to qualify for the 2027 Asian Cup finals

Given the current standings, the Vietnam national team has at least three feasible scenarios to secure a spot in the 2027 Asian Cup finals:

1. Vietnam wins both remaining matches If Vietnam defeats Nepal and then wins by a margin of at least 4 goals against Malaysia in the final round, Coach Kim Sang Sik’s team will accumulate 12 points. Even if Malaysia beats Laos, the top spot will be decided by goal difference, where Vietnam must strive hard (+5 compared to Malaysia’s +9, but with two matches left to improve).

2. Vietnam continues winning, Malaysia loses points If FIFA confirms Malaysia’s nationality violations, losing one or two matches by forfeit could cost Malaysia their current point advantage. Then, Vietnam would only need one more win to guarantee qualification.

Awaiting the “Group F final” between Vietnam and Malaysia

The match between Vietnam and Malaysia in March 2026 is expected to be the “Group F final.” If both teams continue winning their two prior matches, they will face each other with a 3-point gap, and the winner will secure the direct qualification spot for the 2027 Asian Cup finals.

However, regional attention is focused on FIFA’s upcoming decision. If Malaysia is docked points, Vietnam will not only take the lead but also hold full control over their qualification fate.