Pep changes tactics, Haaland changes his fortune

13/10/2025 08:00:00 PANDATV

With a hat-trick in Norway’s 5-0 win over Israel in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Erling Haaland has now scored 21 goals in 12 matches this season for both club and country.

1. With up to 22 games remaining before the end of December, if he avoids any injuries, he is expected to finish 2025 with a career-best total of 57 goals, surpassing the 50 goals he scored in 2023.

It appears this season will be a contest among forward stars, with goal totals determining who is the best among them. Kylian Mbappe has scored in 10 consecutive games for Real Madrid and France, averaging 1.13 goals per 90 minutes. Another elite striker, Harry Kane, has netted 22 goals in 15 matches for Bayern Munich and England, with a rate of 2.01 goals per game.

Regarding his personal "maturation," Man City's number 9 is performing better than in any previous season. The question is what has driven the exceptional growth of this 25-year-old striker? Recently, in an interview with the English sports newspaper Sky Sport about his impressive start, Haaland highlighted his preparation and readiness for matches, both physically and mentally.

Additionally, "Having a child has made me better because it disconnects me more than ever. I don’t think about football at all," Haaland said. Not overthinking football might bring freshness to the number 9 before each match.

2. However, there are also significant tactical factors at work. Firstly, coach Pep Guardiola has made adjustments to Man City's style this season. The Citizens' superior ball possession remains, but the team focuses more on counterattacks and direct play.

Pep Guardiola’s tactical revolution helps Haaland thrive

Haaland now has more chances to attack open spaces thanks to these changes, a position where few players are more dangerous. Advanced Opta stats show he has scored 4 goals from fast breaks in the Premier League, compared to just 1 last season. The opening goal against Israel for Norway also came from a quick counterattack. So far, the 25-year-old striker’s shot conversion rate is 26.3%, slightly lower than his first season at Etihad (29.3%).

Comparing Haaland’s heat maps over the last three seasons shows he is more active in his own half. The number 9 drops deeper to control the ball, touches it more often, and shows greater involvement in the game.

He has had more first touches this season than any Man City teammate, with 9 times. All these factors help Haaland become a more complete striker.

The reason for Haaland’s quick start (in style, form, and goals) could be confidence, fitness, or the level of opponents he has faced so far.

Or it might be because Haaland benefits from Guardiola’s clear shift to a more direct attacking and counterattacking style. Man City’s fast-break situations have more than doubled since last season, and they are close to surpassing their total counterattack goals from the past two years, with 1.8 compared to 0.8 and 0.6.

Counterattack goals are 4 compared to 7 in 2024. Meanwhile, direct speed has increased from 1.56 in 2023 to 1.60 now. Average passes per sequence have dropped sharply from a peak of 5.58 (2024) to 4.30 currently. The Citizens’ forward passing rate has risen from 24.2 last season to 29.4 this season.

3. Haaland, of course, enjoys this not only at Man City but also with Norway. This is likely the main reason his expected goals average is 1.52. No player has ever averaged above 1.0 for a full season. The number 9 has taken 35 shots so far this season, 12 more than any other player. His shots have an average expected goal value of 0.27, much higher than the 0.17 per shot he had early last season.

Even without considering Haaland’s recent surge in numbers, with the clear fact that Guardiola’s latest Man City version is tailored to Haaland’s attributes, he remains on track to become the season’s top scorer.

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