Ironically: European teams need heavy defeats to dream of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup

An unusual circumstance is occurring in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in Europe as San Marino, the weakest team globally, might need to "lose heavily" to maintain their chance of qualifying for the finals.

The standings in Group H of the qualifiers World Cup 2026 have become unpredictable after Romania unexpectedly defeated Austria 1-0 early on October 13. With this victory, Romania rose to 10 points, trailing second-placed Bosnia & Herzegovina by only 3 points. If they beat Bosnia in the match on November 16, they will be level on points, making goal difference the deciding factor.

The match between Romania and San Marino on November 21 could therefore determine the World Cup chances for both teams. According to AS, paradoxically, San Marino must lose heavily to Romania to help their opponent improve their goal difference, thereby overtaking Bosnia for second place. If Romania finishes second in the qualifiers, they will earn a playoff spot as runners-up, which means the playoff spot Romania held from the UEFA Nations League will be passed down to a lower-ranked team—San Marino.

UEFA’s format offers two paths to the playoffs: either finishing second in the World Cup qualifiers or based on Nations League performance. San Marino topped Group D1 in the 2024/2025 Nations League and earned promotion to League C, placing them among the teams prioritized for playoff spots if stronger teams like Romania qualify directly through the main qualifiers.

This creates an ironic scenario: San Marino—the tiny team ranked 210th worldwide—benefits more by losing heavily to Romania. A heavy defeat boosts Romania’s second-place chances, while San Marino “gains” a playoff slot for the 2026 World Cup as a result.

This scenario has sparked intense debate among experts because it contradicts the spirit of fair play in football. A system that forces a team to hope for a heavy loss to advance to the World Cup is clearly flawed and should be reconsidered by UEFA.

After 6 matches, San Marino has lost all, scoring 1 goal and conceding 28. However, thanks to UEFA’s new qualifying format, they still have a rare chance to realize their first-ever World Cup dream. If upcoming results go their way, San Marino could become the most remarkable Cinderella story in European football on the road to the 2026 World Cup.

Related articles

Barca receives a 400 million Euro offer for Yamal Al-Hilal shocks by submitting a 400 million Euro bid for Lamine Yamal, putting Barcelona to a historic test and leaving the future of the 18-year-old prodigy uncertain. See more