Supercomputer predicts the outcome of the Vietnam vs Nepal rematch

The match between Vietnam and Nepal in the fourth round of the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers attracts interest due to the home side’s strong edge in performance, home ground, and power ratings.

The rematch between Vietnam and Nepal in the fourth round of qualifiers Asian Cup 2027 promises to be intense, especially after the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) unexpectedly moved the venue to Thong Nhat Stadium. This is considered a huge advantage for coach Kim Sang Sik’s team, as Vietnam consistently shows impressive form when playing at home, fueled by passionate fan support.

According to statistics from the ELO Rating, Vietnam holds an ELO score of 72 — significantly higher than Nepal’s 46. The winning probability based on ELO also highlights a clear dominance: Vietnam has an 81% chance of winning, whereas Nepal’s chances stand at only 5.3%, with a draw likelihood of 13.7%.

These figures reveal a significant skill gap between the two teams and reinforce confidence that Vietnam can secure another victory to strengthen their lead in Group F.

In the first leg, despite a 3-1 win over Nepal, Vietnam’s performance still had room for improvement. The offense wasted many chances with 25 shots but only scored 3 goals, while defensive mistakes led to the single conceded goal. Therefore, coach Kim Sang Sik is focusing on helping his players balance attack and defense better to avoid vulnerabilities in their high pressing style.

On the other side, Nepal approaches the second leg determined to earn their first point. Under coach Matthew Ross, the visitors maintain a disciplined and tight counter-attacking style. However, in terms of skill level, international experience, and squad depth, they are unlikely to cause an upset against a motivated Vietnam playing at the “fiery” Thong Nhat Stadium.

If Vietnam capitalizes on opportunities and stays focused defensively, they can aim for a convincing win, bringing them closer to qualifying for the 2027 Asian Cup finals.

Related article

Vietnam receives bad news ahead of the rematch with Nepal Center-back Bui Tien Dung is likely to miss the second leg against Nepal on October 14 at Thong Nhat due to an unresolved back injury. See more