A wild scenario for Italy to 'steal' a World Cup spot from Norway

15/10/2025 09:39:00 FieldFrenzy

Although Italy defeated Israel 3-0, they still confront a nearly insurmountable task to overtake Norway’s direct qualifying spot for the 2026 World Cup, given Norway’s dominant performance.

After the crucial 3-0 victory against Israel, the Italian national team temporarily clings to a faint hope in the race for direct qualification to the 2026 World Cup. Currently, the "Azzurri" have 18 points, trailing group leaders Norway by 3 points and significantly behind in goal difference (+10 compared to +26). This means that to surpass their rival, Italy needs an almost unimaginable chain of events.

The first requirement for Italy is that Estonia must cause Norway to drop points in the next round. Even a draw would halt Norway’s momentum and open the door for Spalletti’s squad. In the best-case scenario, Italy only needs to beat Moldova and then Norway in the final match to claim the top spot. However, if Norway secures all 3 points against Estonia, Italy’s task becomes nearly impossible: they would have to defeat Moldova by a margin of at least 10 goals to equalize the goal difference.

Italy needs an “unbelievable” scenario to surpass Norway in Group I

The 16-goal difference between the two teams is almost an insurmountable "mountain" for Italy. The Azzurri are capable of scoring, but achieving a double-digit victory in European competition is extremely rare. That is why experts believe Italy’s chance of direct qualification remains only theoretical.

Norway is demonstrating overwhelming strength thanks to star players like Haaland, Odegaard, and Sorloth. Their 3-0 victory over Italy in June was seen as a turning point in Group I, marking the first time the Nordic team defeated the Azzurri in 25 years. Since then, Norway has maintained consistent form and a winning streak, firmly holding control of their destiny.

Meanwhile, Italy has almost resigned themselves to the play-off round. Under the new format, 12 second-placed European qualifiers along with 4 top-performing Nations League teams will be divided into 4 brackets. Each bracket consists of a semifinal and final, played as single matches on March 26 and 31, 2026, respectively.

The +16 goal difference gap makes Italy’s chance of direct qualification almost zero

Thanks to their steady performance, Italy is likely to be the top seed, meaning they will host the semifinal against a team from the Nations League group such as Wales, Romania, Sweden, or Northern Ireland. If victorious, they will also host the play-off final for a chance to qualify for the World Cup.

Nevertheless, the play-off nightmare still worries Italian fans. In the last two World Cups, Italy was heartbreakingly eliminated at this stage: losing to Sweden in 2018 and to North Macedonia in stoppage time in 2022. This time, the Azzurri certainly do not want to repeat that tragedy, but for now, the miracle of "stealing a spot from Norway" remains a distant dream.

Related articles