Supercomputer reveals the result of the Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest match

Chelsea is favored by the Opta supercomputer system as the visiting team at Nottingham Forest's City Ground in the 8th round of the 2025/26 Premier League.

Supercomputer forecast for Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

According to simulations by the Opta supercomputer, Chelsea has a 48.1% chance of winning this match. Forest has only a 27.8% chance to win, while the probability of a draw stands at 24.1%.

Regarding the full season forecast, Chelsea is currently rated with the highest probability to finish 4th (12.4%), while their chance of winning the title is only 2.6%. Meanwhile, Forest struggles near the bottom, with a 12.05% chance to finish 17th, but the risk of dropping to 18th place and relegation to the Championship is nearly the same at 12.01%.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest preview

Nottingham Forest will host Chelsea at the City Ground at 18:30 on October 18 (Vietnam time), amid increasing pressure on coach Ange Postecoglou. According to various sources, Sean Dyche may be appointed to replace him as head coach.

Unfortunately for the Australian coach, history does not favor him. During his two years managing Tottenham, Postecoglou lost all 4 encounters against Chelsea in the Premier League. Premier League. If he suffers another defeat, he will join a list of managers like Rafael Benítez, Mick McCarthy, Tony Pulis, and Owen Coyle — all of whom lost their first five matches against The Blues in this competition.

Forest's situation is also bleak. They are losing home advantage, having lost 5 of their last 7 Premier League matches at City Ground (winning 1, drawing 1), equal to the total defeats they suffered in the previous 22 matches (winning 11, drawing 6). If they lose again, it will be their third consecutive home defeat, something that hasn't happened since a streak of 4 losses in December 2023.

Forest's biggest problem is scoring goals. They have lost 4 of their last 5 rounds (drawing 1) and failed to score in all 4 defeats. If they fail to score again in this match, Forest will experience 3 consecutive Premier League matches without goals for the first time since April 1999.

However, the City Ground hosts can take some comfort as Chelsea's away form is not strong. Under Enzo Maresca, The Blues have won only three of their last 14 away Premier League games (drawing 4, losing 7). In 2025, only 27% of Chelsea's points came from away matches (12 out of 45), the lowest among teams consistently in the top tier over the past two seasons.

Still, Chelsea's matches are always high-scoring. No team in the Premier League this season has seen more goals in their games than Chelsea's (22 goals — 13 scored, 9 conceded). Specifically, away from home, Chelsea has scored 8 goals and conceded 5, a figure second only to Burnley’s 17 away goals. Notably, half of Chelsea’s away goals (4 out of 8) came from corners, matching the total corner goals they scored away all of last season (2024/25).

Midfielder Moisés Caicedo is a key player for Chelsea, leading the Premier League in both tackles (28) and interceptions (18). On the other side, Forest's Elliot Anderson stands out with 55 ball recoveries, the highest in the league.

Chelsea will receive good news with Trevoh Chalobah returning from suspension, while Wesley Fofana, Tosin Adarabioyo, and Benoît Badiashile may also feature. However, Cole Palmer won't recover in time, and Enzo Fernández has just withdrawn from Argentina’s squad. Reece James could play despite missing England duty, and Caicedo will also participate after skipping Ecuador's matches.

For Forest, they hope Oleksandr Zinchenko and Douglas Luiz will return for the Chelsea encounter.

Head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Chelsea

Forest has won only one of their last eight Premier League meetings with Chelsea, drawing three and losing four. Their sole victory was a 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge in September 2023. Conversely, Chelsea has won three of their last four away games against Forest (drawing one), including the last two. The Blues have never won three consecutive away matches against Forest in their history.

Expected lineups

• Nottingham Forest: Mats Selz; Neco Williams, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo, Oleksandr Zinchenko; Ibrahim Sangaré, Elliot Anderson; Dan Ndoye, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Morgan Gibbs-White; Chris Wood.
• Chelsea: Robert Sánchez; Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Benoît Badiashile, Marc Cucurella; Roméo Lavia, Moisés Caicedo; Estêvão, Enzo Fernández, Pedro Neto; João Pedro.

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