Supercomputer predicts unbelievable outcome for Man City vs Everton match

According to the Opta supercomputer, Manchester City holds a 65.9% probability of victory over Everton, whereas the away team has just a 15.6% chance to surprise at Etihad.

Analysis from the Opta supercomputer forecasts Manchester City to dominate in their clash with Everton. Results from 10,000 pre-match simulations show City winning 65.9%, drawing 18.5%, and losing only 15.6%. This clearly reflects the gap in form and quality between the two sides at present.

Pep Guardiola’s squad is regaining momentum after the international break, securing back-to-back wins against Burnley and Brentford, moving up to fifth place in the Premier League standings. On average, Man City earns 2.04 points per game — the highest in the league. They also lead the scoring charts with 55 goals in 26 matches, sharing the record of 16 wins this season with Liverpool.

Erling Haaland remains an indispensable spearhead in Guardiola’s attack. The Norwegian striker has scored in 10 consecutive matches for club and country, netting 9 goals in just 7 Premier League games. If he scores again against Everton, Haaland will become only the third player in history to score over 10 goals within the first 8 games of a season, showcasing his frightening form.

However, Man City’s playing style has shifted this season. The team averages only 57.6% possession and completes 541 passes per match — the lowest figures in Guardiola’s career at major clubs. This adjustment is due to Rodri’s absence with a thigh injury. Without Rodri, City averages 1.8 points per game, compared to 2.4 points when he plays.

Despite missing a key player, Etihad remains a fortress. City has won 7 of their last 8 home Premier League matches, losing only once to Tottenham. Their last two home wins came with at least a three-goal margin — a performance reminiscent of their dominant run in May 2024.

Meanwhile, David Moyes’ Everton is showing signs of revival. They have won 6 of their last 10 league games, matching the total number of wins from the previous 27 matches combined. On the road, Everton have won 4 of their last 7 games, but their record against Man City is extremely poor. The Merseyside Blues have not won at Etihad since December 2010, enduring a 14-game winless streak there (6 draws, 8 losses).

David Moyes himself has struggled when visiting Man City, losing all 8 recent trips to Etihad with various teams. Nevertheless, he can hope for the returns of Jarrad Branthwaite, Merlin Rohl, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. On City’s side, Guardiola may welcome back Omar Marmoush, Rayan Ait-Nouri, and Abdukodir Khusanov, with Rodri remaining sidelined due to injury.

Overall, the difference in class, squad depth, and home form justifies Opta’s prediction. If Haaland keeps scoring and City’s attack remains efficient, a comfortable win for the Etihad hosts seems inevitable.

Opta’s simulations give Man City a 65.9% chance of winning, Everton 15.6%, and a draw 18.5%. Recent stats and form suggest Guardiola’s side is likely to extend their winning streak and stay close to the Premier League’s top group.

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