Issue 25157 Football Victory and Defeat Lottery: Arsenal is secure, Bayern consolidates top spot, Manchester United should beware of setbacks.

1 Brighton vs Leeds

The home side is ranked 13th, with an overall average performance and very inconsistent form. They played a midweek cup match losing 0-2 to Arsenal, which certainly impacts their stamina. In their last six games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 11 and conceding 11 goals. Their offense is not problematic, but their defense is somewhat weak. Recently, they managed a draw against Tottenham, a win over Chelsea, and also beat Newcastle, but oddly lost to a struggling Manchester United. In their last four home matches, they recorded two wins and two draws, scoring 7 and conceding 5 goals, with three matches against strong Premier League teams, reflecting strong home competitiveness.

The visitors, as newly promoted, rank 15th, which is quite impressive given their limited strength. They did not play a midweek cup match, so their fitness is definitely better than the home team. In their last six games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; away, 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 9 goals. Their opponents were not strong, so the two wins and one draw are not very remarkable. In their last four away games, they have 1 win and 3 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 9 goals, only beating a low-form Wolves, while their away attack and defense have been quite weak.

The data strongly supports the home team, which aligns with the actual situation. However, the home team's weakness lies in fitness, while the visitors are a high-energy side, so caution is advised.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw

2 Burnley vs Arsenal

The home team ranks 16th with an average overall performance. In their last six matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; at home, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 11 goals. They have won their last two games, showing improved form. Although their opponents were not strong, confidence is important. In their last four home games, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss, only losing 0-1 to Liverpool. In that game, their counter-attacks were very effective, with 5 goals scored and 2 conceded at home, showing strong home ability.

The visitors currently top the league. Although they played a midweek cup match and have a Champions League game next week, their squad depth is strong, allowing ample rotation with little impact. In their last six games, they have 5 wins and 1 draw, with no losses; away, 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 2 goals. They only drew with Manchester City. Their attack and defense are both excellent. In their last four away matches, they have three wins and one loss, only losing to Liverpool, scoring 4 and conceding 2 goals. Their away strength matches the home team's home strength.

The data heavily favors the visitors. Although the home team's defense is good, the visitors need to quickly widen the gap to secure the title and take full points against weaker teams. This match is a great opportunity, so the visitors should give their all.

Visitor win

3 Crystal Palace vs Brentford

The home team has played reasonably well this season. Before the cup match, their form dropped sharply, going winless in four matches across competitions, which hurt their confidence. Fortunately, despite rotating players, they won 3-0 away against Liverpool in the midweek cup, halting their decline. In their last six games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 8 goals. Their form is unstable – they can beat Liverpool but also lose to Everton. At home, they have one win and three draws with no defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 5 goals. They struggle against weaker teams but can beat Liverpool and won away at Chelsea.

The visitors rank 11th and recently defeated Liverpool at home. In their last six matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses; away, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 11 and conceding 9 goals. Their attack is quite good. However, they have a typical home-strong, away-weak pattern, with four away games yielding one win and three losses, only beating a struggling West Ham, conceding 8 goals and scoring 5.

The data slightly supports the home team. From home and away strengths, the home team is superior, but fitness may not favor them.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw

4 Fulham vs Wolves

The home team is near the relegation zone, ranked 17th, and their recent overall form is poor. In their last six matches, they have 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses; at home, 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 10 goals. They are on a four-game losing streak, with three of those being away. The home team is characteristically strong at home and weak away, which fits their profile. In their last four home games, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss, only losing 0-1 to a red-hot Arsenal, showing decent home ability.

The visitors face a very high chance of relegation this season, currently bottom with only two points. In their last six matches, they have 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses; away, 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 11 goals. Their attack and defense have major issues. In four away games, they have one draw and three losses, scoring 3 and conceding 10 goals, showing very weak away performance.

The data supports the home team, and given the relative strengths, this support is reasonable. Considering home and away abilities, the home team must secure enough points at home to escape relegation soon.

Home win

5 Nottingham vs Manchester United

The home team now ranks 18th, looking very different from last season's form. Multiple competitions have exhausted them. In their last six matches, they have 0 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses; at home, 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 1 and conceding 12 goals. In their last four home games, they have one win and three losses, scoring 3 and conceding 8 goals. Overall, the home team is in a deep slump.

The visitors rank sixth and have rapidly improved recently, hitting good form. Without European competition, they have a clear fitness advantage. In their last six matches, they have 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses; away, 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 11 and conceding 10 goals. Their defense still has issues, but their attack seems to have found rhythm, with wins like 2-0 over Sunderland, 2-1 over Liverpool, and 4-2 over Brighton, showing signs of resurgence. In their last four away matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring 4 and conceding 8 goals. Their away strength remains uncertain but recent form is good.

The data supports the visitors, but only weakly, not fully reflecting their recent performance or the home team's fatigue from multiple competitions. For the visitors, away performance will influence their season’s outcome. The visitors have an advantage, but the home team must perform well at home to break free from trouble.

First choice: visitor win, second choice: home win

6 Tottenham vs Chelsea

The home team ranks third and maintains relatively stable form. They lost their last cup match, reflecting their focus on the league and European competitions. In their last six games, they have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss; at home, 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 12 and conceding 6 goals. Their attack and defense look decent, but most points came away from home, often against weaker opponents, benefiting from the schedule. In their last four home matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring 5 and conceding 4.

The visitors rank ninth, with inconsistency as a fatal weakness. Multiple competitions have also affected them. In their last six matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; away, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 10 goals. They surprisingly lost at home to Sunderland recently. In their last four away matches, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 11 and conceding 5 goals, showing decent away strength.

The data shows no clear preference, but recent matches indicate the home team is in better form, while the visitors have stronger away performance.

First choice: visitor win, second choice: home win

7 Liverpool vs Aston Villa

The home team seems cursed recently, suffering consecutive defeats and dropping to seventh place. Such a situation has rarely occurred in recent years. In seven matches across all competitions, they lost six times. Their defensive system has completely collapsed, possibly leading to prolonged losses. In their last six games, they have 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses; at home, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 10 goals. Four consecutive losses have severely impacted the team, likely causing nervousness during matches.

The visitors rank eighth. Although their ranking is not ideal, with injured players returning, their recent form has quickly improved. In their last six matches, they have 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses; away, 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 4 goals. They lost to Tottenham and Manchester City, showing this is not a temporary performance. In their last four away games, they have one win, two draws, and one loss, scoring 3 and conceding 3 goals.

The data heavily supports the home team, which is a strong stance that does not fully consider the current situation of both sides. Both teams have European matches next week, but the home team’s tasks are more critical.

First choice: home win, second choice: visitor win

8 Hayden vs Frankfurt

The home team ranks 17th, in the relegation zone, and their form is poor. In their last six matches, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses; at home, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 11 goals. Their attack is not a big problem, but their defense is weak. In their last four home games, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8 goals. However, their home strength has started to improve with a win and a draw in the last two home matches. To avoid relegation, they must capitalize on home games.

The visitors rank sixth but face multiple competitions. They have a Champions League match against Napoli next Wednesday and a cup match against Dortmund, which tests their fitness. In their last six matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; away, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 14 and conceding 16 goals. Despite strong attack, their defense is poor, conceding too many goals, a consequence of the congested schedule. In their last four away matches, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 12 and conceding 10 goals, showing defensive weaknesses on the road.

The data supports the visitors, but the strength of this support is insufficient given both teams’ recent form, and it does not fully reflect confidence in the visitors.

First choice: visitor win, second choice: home win

9 Leipzig vs Stuttgart

The home team has risen to second place with good recent form. In their last six games, they have 5 wins and 1 draw; at home, 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 3 goals. Their attack and defense are well balanced, only drawing once against Dortmund. Without the pressure of multiple competitions, they handle games with ease. They have won all three recent home matches, scoring 7 and conceding 2 goals.

The visitors rank third and have performed well despite multiple competitions. In their last six games, they have 5 wins and 1 loss; away, 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 11 and conceding 5 goals. They are on a five-game winning streak, although their opponents were relatively weaker, benefiting from the schedule. In their last four away matches, they have two wins and two draws, including two consecutive wins recently, scoring 7 and conceding 6 goals, showing improved away form.

The data supports the home team, though the margin is small. The teams face different schedules, and the home team’s home strength is slightly better than the visitors’ away strength.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw

10 Union Berlin vs Freiburg

The home team ranks tenth, performing reasonably well and better than last season. In their last six matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; at home, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 11 goals. Two losses were away, and in four home games, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss, conceding four goals in a match against Hoffenheim. Overall, their home strength is solid.

The visitors rank 11th, with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last six games; away, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 6 goals. Their recent form is quite good, only losing to Leverkusen. Their attack and defense are balanced. In four away matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring 4 and conceding 6 goals, showing unstable away form.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the home team due to their stronger home ability and confidence.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw

11 Bayern vs Leverkusen

Both teams have performed well, but the home team’s defense is much stronger than the visitors’. The visitors have conceded goals in every away game.

The data strongly supports the home team, which would have been unimaginable in the past two seasons. This season, the home team’s attack has improved while the visitors’ defense has declined significantly. The home team should take the lead here.

Home win

12 Cremonese vs Juventus

The home team ranks eighth. As a newly promoted side, they have been quite solid, with 1 win, 4 draws, and 1 loss in their last six games; at home, 0 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 7 goals. Their overall form is stable. In their last four home matches, they have one win and three draws, remaining unbeaten. Though not outstanding, they are steady, scoring 5 and conceding 4 goals.

The visitors rank seventh but have not performed well overall. In their last six games, they have 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses; away, 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 6 goals. Their recent form is poor, with attack and defense similar to the home team. In their last four away matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, suffering two consecutive defeats without scoring. Next Wednesday, they face a Champions League match, highlighting fatigue from multiple competitions.

The data strongly supports the visitors, but this does not reflect their recent weakness or the home team’s excellent home form.

First choice: visitor win, second choice: draw

13 Sociedad vs Bilbao

The home team ranks 17th and has been out of form this season. In their last six matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; at home, 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 8 goals. They are unbeaten in their last two games, drawing with Celta and winning at home against a strong Sevilla. In their last five home matches, they have two wins, one draw, and two losses, scoring 6 and conceding 6 goals.

The visitors rank ninth but have been worn down by multiple competitions. In their last six matches, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses; away, 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 6 goals. Their attacking ability has dropped sharply recently, and players show fatigue. In their last four away matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring 2 and conceding 4 goals.

The data shows no clear bias but the home team appears more relaxed, which might be a turning point for them.

Home win

14 Real Madrid vs Valencia

Home win