Monday Morning Brew: Man City, Liverpool, and Lessons from Warren Buffett

10/11/2025 16:07:00 PlaymakerHub

Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said: "You only need to be right a few times in life, as long as you don’t make too many mistakes."

1. In 1999, the US stock market was booming with the dot-com frenzy: Internet tech stocks surged dramatically, making many investors wealthy rapidly. People flocked to buy shares of companies like Amazon and internet startups, even though many had no real profits yet.

Warren Buffett, by then a billionaire famous for value investing, faced harsh criticism from analysts and the press because he... did nothing. He refused to invest in any tech stocks since they were outside his "circle of competence."

Buffett only invested in businesses he thoroughly understood and could predict long-term earnings from. He was determined to avoid mistakes.

What happened? When the dot-com bubble burst from 2000 to 2002, the Nasdaq lost up to 78% of its value, millions of investors were wiped out, and countless tech companies went bankrupt. Buffett held cash and bought traditional companies at bargain prices, continuing his success.

This is an example of someone who succeeded by taking the "don’t make mistakes" philosophy to an extreme: Buffett did everything possible to avoid errors, even when there was a tidal wave of profits all around him.

2. There is a Premier League manager with a similarly extreme philosophy: Sir Alex Ferguson. In the 1990s and early 2000s, the Scottish coach carefully calculated and set a firm rule: Manchester United could not lose more than 6 matches if they wanted to win the English league.

Man City and Liverpool still have many chances to catch Arsenal, but they must stop making mistakes

What kept MU dominant for nearly three decades under Sir Alex was probably this absolute avoidance of mistakes. He favored dedicated and focused players, even if they weren’t the most talented, like Gary Neville, Denis Irwin, or even John O’Shea… They weren’t necessarily match-winners but made very few errors.

In seasons when MU failed to win the title, they made more mistakes than their rivals. Arsenal even went unbeaten in the 2003-2004 season (a 49-game unbeaten streak). Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea set a new benchmark for error-free performance: earning 95 points in 2004-2005 with just one loss; and 91 points in 2005-2006 (losing 5 games).

A common trait of all national champions is probably the mindset of avoiding dropped points just like Buffett fears losing money. Once that focus is lost, they no longer resemble champions.

3. Pep Guardiola said Arsenal "look unstoppable at the moment," but the problem isn’t Arteta’s team—it lies with Man City: they are making too many mistakes.

So far, they have lost 3 matches, mostly due to individual errors. In their first defeat of the season against Tottenham, goalkeeper James Trafford kicked the ball directly to an opponent, leading to the opening goal. A week later, they fell at Brighton due to "childish mistakes," according to midfielder Rodri.

Last season, after a strong start, Man City completely lost their way following just 1-2 costly defeats: they won only once in 13 matches from late October to December. Guardiola later regretted being too lenient with those first two losses: "Yeah, it was only two games. But then it became 3, 4, 5, 6." When that happened, Pep said it was a mountain "too hard to climb."

Last Tuesday, watching Liverpool dominate Real Madrid, many of their fans probably couldn’t believe the team struggling in the Premier League. Liverpool had just lost 4 matches in a row, yet suddenly played like true champions.

Statistical firm Opta, using algorithms based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures, estimated Arsenal’s chance to win their first Premier League title in 21 years at 71.5%, with City at 13.5% and Liverpool 9.7%. The difference is simple: Arteta’s team makes very few mistakes, playing with intense focus and discipline.

Earlier this season, Arteta hired a team of professional pickpockets to clean out the players’ pockets during dinner, as a reminder of his obsession: Don’t make mistakes. As Warren Buffett taught: Rule number one is don’t lose money. Rule number two is don’t forget rule number one.

Man City and Liverpool have already "spent" half of their season’s mistake allowance, according to Sir Alex’s old standard. At times like this, their strength can become meaningless simply because of the errors they have made.

Pham An

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