Issue 25168 Football Win-Draw-Loss Lottery: Hocun strong away, Marseille might falter, The Hague unstable on the road

1 Preus VS Black

Home team:

Ranked fourth, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last six games; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 9 goals and conceded 7; unbeaten in the last four matches, showing good condition. In the last six home matches, 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 6 goals. Reviewing the last six matches and home opponents, the home team manages not to lose ground against both lower and upper-tier teams. The form remains fairly consistent.

Away team:

Ranked nineteenth, 10 points behind the home team, overall form is much weaker; last six matches show 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 7 goals and conceded 8. The away wins against Lecce and eighth-ranked Bristol demonstrate some fighting strength. In the last six away matches, 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded, showing solid away form and strong defense.

Data:

No clear external bias, indicating that although the home team ranks higher and is in good form, confidence from outside is not strong. Historical head-to-heads favor the home team, but numerous draws suggest both sides find it hard to dominate each other. Caution is advised for this match.

First draw, second home win

2 Mainz VS Hoffenheim

Home team:

Burdened by multiple competitions, currently seventeenth, the situation is dire; last six matches with 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; home record 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 5 goals and conceded 14, showing very poor performance. In the last five home matches, two draws and three losses, no victories, goal difference 4/9, significantly worse than last season.

Away team:

Ranked sixth, performing quite well; last six matches 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; away record 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 13 goals and conceded 6. Recently four consecutive wins including a victory over strong Leipzig. Only one win behind second place. Last five away matches show four wins and one draw with no defeats, goal difference 13/6, demonstrating strong away capability. Leverkusen also lost to them.

Data:

No clear bias in data but some confidence is given to the home team. Considering recent form and home-away strength, this support is weak and unconvincing. Historically, the home team is not intimidated by the away side on home turf.

First home win, second away win

3 Bochum VS Dresden

Home team:

Ranked thirteenth in the league, overall average performance; last six matches 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 10 goals and conceded 7. Unbeaten in the last four games but opponents were mostly lower ranked, so quality is low; attacking ability is evident. Last six home matches 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 8 goals and conceded 5. Attack and defense are decent but inconsistent, able to beat Aue but lose to Düsseldorf.

Away team:

Ranked seventeenth, reflecting poor form this season; last six matches 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses; away record 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 13. Last six away matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; scored 8 goals and conceded 12. Defense is the biggest issue affecting results.

Data:

Data favors the home team. Based on recent form and home-away strength, this support seems reasonable. However, the home team's inconsistency could be a factor, as the away team does have some attacking threat on the road.

First home win, second draw

4 Hertha VS Bielefeld

Home team:

Ranked eighth, the season started poorly but has improved as it progressed. Currently only seven points behind the top two, the league is still long with opportunities. Last six matches 5 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; home record 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 11 goals and conceded 4; strong both offensively and defensively, recently won three straight, the loss to Bochum was away. Last six home games 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 5 goals and conceded 5. The two losses were against top three teams, which is understandable. Although goal scoring seems limited, the last three home wins show improving form.

Away team:

Ranked sixteenth, overall poor form, only three points above relegation zone; last six matches 1 win, 0 draws, 5 losses; away record 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 5 goals and conceded 13. Last six away matches 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses; scored 6 goals and conceded 10. The two wins were against weak opponents, showing limited quality. Both offense and defense have problems.

Data:

Data strongly supports the home team, matching recent form for both sides. With the home team on a winning streak and stable against lower-ranked opponents, they clearly hold the advantage. Historical home records also favor the home team psychologically.

Home win

5 Valencia VS Levante

Home team:

Ranked seventeenth, overall poor performance; last six matches 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses; home record 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 3 goals and conceded 11; weak attack and poor defense. Two draws were against Betis and Alavés, occasionally playing well. In the last six home matches, 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; scored 8 goals and conceded 6, showing some home strength but inconsistency. They can beat Bilbao but also lose to promoted Oviedo.

Away team:

Ranked nineteenth, even worse form; last six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; away record 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss; scored 6 goals and conceded 10. The attack is stronger than the home side. Notably, the one win and two draws were on the road. Last six away matches 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; scored 9 goals and conceded 7, showing some away capability.

Data:

Data gives some support to the home team, but considering recent performances and home-away strength, this support is basically unsupported. It neglects the away team's ability on the road. Although historically the home team is not afraid of the away side, their very poor current form is concerning. This match requires special attention.

Draw

6 Nice VS Marseille

Home team:

Ranked ninth, juggling multiple competitions has somewhat affected league results, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last six matches; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 10 goals and conceded 8; very strong attack but weak defense. Form was once very hot, with Lille, Lyon, and Monaco unable to beat them. Unexpectedly lost last round to 14th placed Metz, surprising many. Then lost again to PSG, two consecutive defeats. In the last six home matches, 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 10 goals and conceded 5; unbeaten in last five home games, showing strong home capability, including against strong Lyon and Lille teams.

Away team:

Ranked second, also competing on multiple fronts, playing at a higher European level than the home team. Despite this, they have maintained good form; last six matches 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 16 goals and conceded 6. Lost away only to equally strong Reims. Recent opponents generally weaker, with less value. Last six away matches 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 5. Away form average; losses were against stronger teams. The team seems less effective in tough matches.

Data:

Data favors the away team with considerable support. Given both sides’ recent form and home-away strength, this support may be beyond what the away team can handle. The home team is very strong at home against strong opponents. Historically, the home team has rarely been disadvantaged at home, holding a psychological edge.

First away win, second home win

7 Annecy VS Bastia

Home team:

Ranked twelfth, overall average; last six matches 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; home record 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 4; weaker attack but solid defense. Both losses came away. Last six home matches 1 win, 4 draws, 1 loss; scored 9 goals and conceded 6; decent home strength, especially a 4-0 win over third-placed Saint-Étienne, a remarkable performance. However, too many draws have limited their ranking.

Away team:

Ranked eighteenth, bottom of the table with only seven points; last six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; away record 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 2 goals and conceded 6; very weak attack but defense is not terrible, with one win being at home. Last six away matches 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses; scored 0 goals and conceded 6; the two draws were against relatively weak teams, showing very poor away ability, most worryingly no goals scored.

Data:

Data supports the home team, but not strongly, possibly considering the away team’s decent defense despite difficulty winning. Historical meetings show the home team has better attack but the away team’s defense is solid, leading to frequent draws.

First home win, second draw

8 Boulogne VS Grenoble

Home team:

Ranked seventeenth; last six matches 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses; home record 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 7 goals and conceded 11. Though conceding many goals, six were in one match against Lens; overall defense is decent. Two losses were against Lens and Le Mans, both relatively strong teams. Last six home matches 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 15; attack is not bad but defense seems weak. The four losses were against strong teams, the schedule was tough.

Away team:

Ranked tenth; last six matches 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 10 goals and conceded 7; better attack and defense than home team. Drew with Boulogne and beat Saint-Ouen Red Star, showing some strength. Last six away matches 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses; scored 9 goals and conceded 9; wins over Lens and draws with Saint-Étienne show some away capability.

Data:

Data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the home team. However, based on recent form and home-away strength, this support lacks conviction. It seems to suppress the away team’s chances. Though history favors the home team, it is outdated and unreliable.

Away win

9 Laval VS Troyes

Home team:

Ranked sixteenth, third from bottom, still in relegation danger; last six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; home record 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 3 goals and conceded 5; weak attack but defense is relatively good. Last six home matches 0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses; scored 4 goals and conceded 9; overall weak both offensively and defensively.

Away team:

Ranked first and in strong momentum; last six matches 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss; away record 0 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses; scored 9 goals and conceded 7; last round lost 2-3 at home to third-placed Saint-Étienne. Defense shows some issues. Last six away matches 1 win, 4 draws, 1 loss; scored 6 goals and conceded 6; recent away form is not very good, too many draws have limited point gap.

Data:

Data favors the away team but the strength of support is insufficient given current rankings and form. This suggests some doubts about the away team’s road performance. An upset is likely.

First away win, second home win

10 Boulogne VS Le Mans

Home team:

Ranked fifth, generally performing well; last six matches 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses; home record 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 7 goals and conceded 14; big problems in attack and defense, no wins in five consecutive matches, form declining sharply. Last six home matches 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 8; conceding too many goals at home.

Away team:

Ranked seventh, only two points behind; both teams are evenly matched. Last six matches 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses; away record 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 8 goals and conceded 5; overall good performance, especially defensively. Last six away matches 1 win, 4 draws, 1 loss; scored 10 goals and conceded 10; defense is lacking away but overall away strength is decent.

Data:

No clear bias in data; given both teams’ home and away strength and form, it’s hard to say who has the upper hand.

Draw

11 Rodez VS Dunkirk

Home team:

Ranked thirteenth; last six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; home record 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 10; average performance with defensive problems. Two draws were against relatively strong teams, Saint-Étienne and Lens. Last six home matches 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 7; average home strength.

Away team:

Ranked eighth; last six matches 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; away record 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 9 goals and conceded 3; good attack and defense. The three wins were against strong teams, showing quality. Last six away matches 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; scored 8 goals and conceded 6; although away form looks average, recent two consecutive away wins were against strong opponents.

Data:

Data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the away team. Historically, the home team’s home form is usually strong but this time is different.

Away win

12 Cambuur VS The Hague

Home team:

Ranked second, showing very good overall form; last six matches 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 16 goals and conceded 9; strong performance, though conceding some goals, their strong attack masks the defensive issues. The one loss was away to eighth-placed VVV-Venlo. Last six home matches 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 19 goals and conceded 9; very strong at home.

Away team:

Ranked first; last six matches 6 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; away record 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 20 goals and conceded 4; excellent form with strong attack and defense. Remarkably, four of these six matches were clean sheets. Last six away matches 6 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 18 goals and conceded 5.

Data:

Data supports the away team strongly, mainly because the home team’s defense is weaker while offense is evenly matched. Historically, the home team has the edge and is not intimidated by the away side psychologically.

First away win, second home win

13 Graafschap VS Helmond

Home team:

Ranked seventh; last six matches 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; home record 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 12 goals and conceded 9; overall good form with four unbeaten matches and three consecutive wins. Defense has minor issues. Last six home matches 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; scored 10 goals and conceded 10; unbeaten in last four matches; offense is fine but defense remains a concern.

Away team:

Ranked twelfth; last six matches 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; away record 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 12 goals and conceded 9. Last six away matches 1 win, 0 draws, 5 losses; scored 5 goals and conceded 9; limited away ability.

Data:

Data supports the home team with considerable strength. Considering recent form and home-away strength, the support is slightly insufficient but still favors the stronger home side.

Home win

14 Oslo VS Bodø

Home team:

Ranked tenth; last six matches 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses; home record 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 7 goals and conceded 10; recent form average with defensive weaknesses. Last round drew 1-1 away against third-placed Brann, showing some good play. Last six home matches 1 win, 4 draws, 1 loss; scored 8 goals and conceded 10; some home strength but winning is difficult, and ability to win is limited.

Away team:

Ranked second; traditionally a strong league team; last six matches 5 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 19 goals and conceded 7; good form overall. Last six away matches 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 16 goals and conceded 8; the one loss was unexpectedly to Vålerenga.

Data:

Data heavily favors the away team, not accounting for the home team’s home strength. Although the home team’s attack is weaker, winning against a strong opponent is very difficult.

First draw, second away win