Issue 25170 football betting, Arsenal defends home ground, Milan’s two giants split the results, Real Madrid needs caution

1 Leeds--Aston Villa

Home team:

Ranked sixteenth in the league, with a recent six-match record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses; home record is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 6 goals and conceded 13; attack is average, defense is quite poor, but the win and draw were at home, drawing with Bournemouth and beating West Ham. In the last five home games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 5. The home strength is somewhat solid.

Away team:

Ranked sixth in the league, with recent six matches showing 5 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; away record of 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 12 goals and conceded 5; recent form is quite good, much improved compared to early season. In the last five away games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 5; away performance is limited.

Data:

The data shows no clear bias, slightly favoring the away team, but many key national players in the away team have played international matches, so FIFA fatigue must be considered.

First away win, second draw

2 Arsenal--Tottenham

Home team:
Ranked first in the league, with a recent six-match record of 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; home record of 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 10 goals and conceded 3; performance this year remains very stable. In the last six home games, 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 13, conceded 1; very formidable at home.

Away team:
Ranked fifth in the league, with recent six matches showing 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 9 goals and conceded 7; recent form is average, though two wins were away but against weaker opponents, so the value is limited. In the last five away games, 4 wins, 1 draw, scoring 10 and conceding 5; away strength is quite strong, including a win over Manchester City, while other opponents are average.

Data:

The data strongly supports the home team, which is reasonable given recent form, but it overlooks the away team’s strong away capability.

First home win, second draw

3 Leipzig--Bremen

Home team:

Ranked second in the league, recent six matches include 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 14 goals and conceded 6; the one loss was away; overall attack and defense are excellent. Last four home games all wins, scoring 10 and conceding 3; home strength is very intimidating.

Away team:

Ranked eighth, recent six matches include 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; away record 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; scored 7 goals and conceded 8; last five games unbeaten, showing good form; last five away games 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 11; away strength is average.

Data:

The data gives strong support to the home team, which aligns with recent matches and home/away strength.

Home win

4 St. Pauli--Union Berlin

Home team:

Ranked sixteenth, just one step from the relegation zone; recent six matches 0 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses; home record 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; scored 2 goals and conceded 14. In the last five home games, 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 13; defense is very poor.

Away team:

Ranked eleventh, recent six matches 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses; away record 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 5 goals and conceded 6; attack is weak but defense is decent. Last five away games 1 win, 3 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 9; away strength is very poor.

Data:

The data shows no clear bias but gives some confidence to the home team, though it does not account for the home team’s recent poor form and average home strength.

First draw, second home win

5 Cremonese--Roma

Home team:

Ranked eleventh, recent six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; home record 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; scored 6 goals and conceded 9; has some attacking ability but weak defense. In last five home games, 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 6; home strength is decent.

Away team:

Ranked second, a long-awaited position; recent six matches 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 7 goals and conceded 4; two losses were against Inter Milan and AC Milan. Defense is very strong. In last five away games, 4 wins, 1 loss, only losing by one goal to AC Milan; scoring 5 and conceding 2; attack is limited but defense is excellent.

Data:

The data strongly supports the away team, but this does not consider the home team’s decent home strength and the away team’s average away scoring.

First away win, second draw

6 Lazio--Lecce

Home team:

Ranked ninth, improving from a poor start to a more stable form; recent six matches 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss; home record 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 6 goals and conceded 5; only lost away to Inter Milan. In last five home games, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 4; home strength is quite good.

Away team:

Ranked fifteenth, recent six matches 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 4 goals and conceded 4; poor scoring but decent defense. In last five away games, 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; better than home form; scoring and conceding both 6.

Data:

The data favors the home team fairly, which is reasonable given their home strength. The home team urgently needs points to return to their deserved position and should show confidence against weaker opponents.

Home win

7 Inter Milan--AC Milan

Home team:

Ranked first, recent six matches 5 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; home record 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses; scored 13 goals and conceded 5; lost away to Napoli but overall very good. In last five home games, 5 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scoring 17 and conceding 4; strong in attack and defense.

Away team:

Ranked fourth, recent six matches 2 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses; away record 0 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses; scored 8 goals and conceded 6; although no losses, too many draws affected ranking; defense is somewhat weak. In last five away games, 2 wins, 3 draws; recent three draws; scoring 8 and conceding 3; away strength is quite good; while attack is weaker than home team, defense is comparable.

Data:

The data strongly supports the home team, but considering the home team has Champions League next week and many players participated in national matches, they are more fatigued than the away team. Also, in local derbies, the home team often falters, so surprises are possible.

First home win, second away win

8 Betis--Girona

Home team:

Ranked fifth, despite multiple competitions, form remains good; recent six matches 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 10 goals and conceded 6; last six home games 4 wins, 2 losses, losing to Bilbao and Atletico Madrid; scoring 10 and conceding 5; home strength is solid.

Away team:

Ranked eighteenth, very dangerous position; recent six matches 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; away record 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 8 goals and conceded 8; last five away games 2 draws, 3 losses; scoring 4 and conceding 11; typical strong home, weak away.

Data:

The data favors the home team strongly; although involved in multiple competitions, home confidence remains high.

Home win

9 Getafe--Atletico Madrid

Home team:

Ranked eighth, overall good performance; recent six matches 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses; home record 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 5 goals and conceded 6; although scoring is limited, defense is quite good. Last five home games 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; only narrowly lost 1-0 to Real Madrid; home defense is solid.

Away team:

Ranked fourth, improved much since early season; recent six matches 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; away record 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses; scored 15 and conceded 4; attack and defense both strong. Last five away games 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss; scoring 6 and conceding 5; away performance less impressive but defense remains strong.

Data:

The data supports the away team moderately; considering the away team has European matches next week and players participated in national games, fatigue is a factor; caution is advised.

First away win, second draw

10 Elche--Real Madrid

Home team:

Ranked eleventh, overall average performance; recent six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; home record 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses; scored 5 goals and conceded 9; three losses were away; last six home games 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses; scored 7 and conceded 3; home strength is very strong, especially defensively, having kept Bilbao and Betis at bay.

Away team:

Ranked first, recent six matches 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; away record 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 12 goals and conceded 7; defense is not flawless; last six away games 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; scoring 12 and conceding 7; five of the conceded goals came against Bayern and Atletico.

Data:

The data strongly favors the away team but not enough; considering players participated in national games and have Champions League matches next week, plus defensive weaknesses this season.

First away win, second draw

11 Auxerre--Lyon

Home team:

Bottom of the league; recent six matches 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; home record 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; scored 3 goals and conceded 11; performance extremely poor; last six home games 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses; scoring 4 and conceding 6; home form is mediocre, mainly due to limited strength.

Away team:

Ranked seventh; overall average; recent six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; away record 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; scored 10 goals and conceded 12; defense has major issues; last six away games 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; scoring 8 and conceding 9; form is very unstable.

Data:

The data favors the away team but not strongly; considering the away team has European matches next week and players have national duties, fatigue is a concern.

First away win, second home win

12 Brest--Metz

Home team:

Ranked fifteenth; recent six matches 0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses; home record 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; scored 3 goals and conceded 10; performance is poor; last six home games 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses; scoring 8 and conceding 9; some home strength remains.

Away team:

Ranked fourteenth; recent six matches 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; away record 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 7 goals and conceded 14; recently won three consecutive matches, including against Lens and Nice; form is improving; attack stronger than home team but defense weak; last six away games 1 win, 0 draws, 5 losses; scoring 7 and conceding 21; away strength is poor.

Data:

The data favors the home team significantly but overlooks the away team’s recent strong form; caution is advised for this match.

First home win, second away win

13 Nantes--Lorient

Home team:

Ranked sixteenth; recent six matches 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses; home record 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; scored 6 goals and conceded 11; defense is poor; last six home games 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses; scoring 6 and conceding 12; performance is weak.

Away team:

Ranked seventeenth; recent six matches 0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses; away record 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; scored 5 goals and conceded 12; performance similar to home team; last six away games 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; scoring 1 and conceding 13; away strength is weak.

Data:

The data shows no clear bias, but from home and away strength, the home team has a stronger attack than the away team.

Home win

14 Lille--Paris FC

First home win, second draw