Issue 25178 football fourteen matches, Arsenal is steady, Brighton strong at home, Real Madrid in a worrying form

1 Arsenal vs Brentford

The home team drew 1-1 away against Chelsea last round. Over the course of the league, the home side has maintained relative stability, and although competing on multiple fronts, they have adequate squad resources.

The visitors won 3-1 at home against Burnley last round, demonstrating their home strength, but their bench depth is inferior to the hosts’. Considering the congested fixture list and their poor away record, the visitors’ position is precarious.

The data strongly favors the home team, which is reasonable.

Home win

2 Brighton vs Aston Villa

The home team won 2-0 away against the improving Nottingham last round, climbing to fifth place. Their home performance this season has been impressive, remaining unbeaten at home so far.

Although the visitors compete on multiple fronts, they narrowly won 1-0 at home against Wolves last round, showing signs of fatigue. Their away performance is also inconsistent, which is a concern.

The data supports the home team, albeit not strongly. Considering recent form, the home side likely has much better fitness reserves than the visitors.

First draw, then home win

3 Burnley vs Crystal Palace

The home team lost 1-3 away to Brentford last round. Failing to secure points against similarly matched teams this season is quite dangerous. They are currently on a four-game losing streak and in poor form.

The visitors have risen to ninth place but lost 1-2 at home to Manchester United last round. Despite leading most of the match, they were overtaken, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities.

The data favors the visitors strongly, which is justified since their away strength is somewhat better than the home team’s home ability.

First away win, then draw

4 Wolves vs Nottingham

The home team lost 0-1 away to Villa last round, continuing their poor form this season with little hope. The visitors appear to be improving.

However, the visitors lost 0-2 at home to Brighton last round but played reasonably well, even dominating parts of the game.

The data supports the visitors slightly, but not strongly. The visitors face fixture congestion and player fatigue, and their away form is unstable.

First away win, then home win

5 Leeds vs Chelsea

The home team lost 2-3 away to Manchester City last round but showed great resilience in the second half, making it difficult for City. Their performance was commendable.

The visitors are third in the table and drew 1-1 at home against strong Arsenal last round. Competing on multiple fronts with good results, but player fitness is a big concern.

The data strongly supports the visitors, though it does not fully account for the visitors’ fatigue. Besides competing on many fronts, the recent match against Arsenal was exhausting.

First away win, then draw

6 Liverpool vs Sunderland

The home team won 2-0 away against West Ham last round, ending a losing streak. Hopefully, this marks a positive turning point, although their playing style seemed somewhat disorganized.

The visitors came from two goals down to win 3-2 at home against Bournemouth last round, showing strong resilience. Since promotion to the Premier League, they have been a surprise package.

The data strongly favors the home team, but recent performances suggest some unpredictability. The visitors are tough opponents, having even beaten Chelsea away.

First home win, then away win

7 Manchester United vs West Ham

The home team won away last round against the well-performing Crystal Palace, coming from behind, but their inconsistent form is worrying.

The visitors lost 0-2 at home to struggling Liverpool last round and are just above the relegation zone.

The data strongly supports the home team, which is quite reasonable.

Home win

8 Freiburg vs Darmstadt

The home team has solid home form, while the visitors are fifth in the league and have shown good recent away performances.

The data favors the home team reasonably well, but the visitors are not weak, and cup matches can produce surprises.

First home win, then draw

9 Hamburg vs Kiel

Both teams have average league performances. The home team is realistically fighting to avoid relegation in the Bundesliga, and the tight schedule inevitably causes player fatigue.

The data supports the home team, but the strength of this support is somewhat lacking.

First home win, then away win

10 Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich

A club of Bayern’s stature will not miss any chance for a title, but squad rotation is unavoidable. Their league form has been average, and they lost to Heidenheim last weekend. The home team might be sacrificed in this match.

The data strongly supports the visitors, though this level of support might actually be insufficient.

Away win

11 Napoli vs Cagliari

The home team competes on multiple fronts, making player rotation unavoidable, with league and Champions League commitments coming up. The visitors do not face such pressures.

The data strongly supports the home team, but the situation does not make things more optimistic for them.

First home win, then away win

12 Bologna vs Parma

The home team lost to Cremonese last weekend, dropping to sixth in the league, forcing them to prioritize. The visitors are struggling in the league, but cup matches offer more opportunities for weaker teams, especially since the home team is fatigued from multiple competitions.

The data supports the home team strongly, and they generally take the cup seriously.

Home win

13 Lazio vs AC Milan

Neither team competes on multiple fronts, but the home team’s league position is not enough for a European spot, while the visitors top the league and have the luxury to be selective. The visitors have consistently performed well this season.

The data favors the visitors, but not strongly. The home team might focus on the league rather than the cup.

Away win

14 Bilbao vs Real Madrid

The data favors the visitors, but the support is very weak, partly due to the visitors’ recent tactics and defensive instability causing external doubts.

First away win, then draw