Serie A title race: Big loss? Inter isn’t overly concerned!

16/12/2025 07:27:00 GoalGuru

Theoretically, a team suffering 4 defeats within 15 matches and losing to most direct competitors would usually be eliminated from the championship race. However, this is the 2025-26 Serie A season, a wild campaign where traditional rules have been overturned.

The Serie A lead has shifted again after both Milan and Napoli stumbled in round 15. Milan drew 2-2 with Sassuolo, and Napoli were defeated 0-1 at Udinese. Inter capitalized on this chance by securing a 2-1 victory at Genoa.

Losing one battle, preparing for the next

This could be the season when the belief that “the championship belongs to the team with the best defense” is challenged. After conceding 14 goals in 15 rounds, Inter doesn’t have the rock-solid defense they showed in their recent title-winning seasons (2020-21 and 2023-24); they have also lost 4 matches, which is the maximum number of defeats most Serie A champions have had over the last two decades.

Inter’s secret is actually simple: “Lose this battle, set up another,” and they win that one. Inter doesn’t draw matches. Apart from their 4 losses, coach Cristian Chivu’s team has won all the other 11 games. If they maintain this form, they could lose up to 10 matches in the entire season and still accumulate enough points to win or compete until the very end by winning all remaining 28 matches, totaling 84 points. Last season, Napoli won the title with just 82 points, and Juventus clinched the 2019-20 Scudetto with 83 points.

Inter has turned its weakness into a calculated gamble. They might lose to Milan, Napoli, or Juventus in crucial six-point matches, but they compensate by “sweeping” teams like Genoa, Como, or Sassuolo. The recent 2-1 win over Genoa is a perfect example: they dominated the first half, settled the game early, and despite some carelessness in the second half, secured all three points to reclaim the top spot.

No need to be perfect

Looking at their rivals, we can understand why Inter’s lead is so solid. Every contender has issues, but although Inter’s problem is theoretically the most serious and dangerous, it is also the easiest to fix.

Inter continues marching forward by consistently beating lower-ranked opponents

Out of 38 Serie A rounds, only about 8-10 matches are considered “big battles” (against the Big 6 or Big 7). Inter may struggle in those games, but they dominate the other 28-30 matches against smaller clubs. Chivu’s Inter is proving that they don’t need to be perfect to lead; they just need to be ruthless and efficient in winnable matches.

On the other hand, Milan is suffering from a serious “knight syndrome.” They are busy taking points from big rivals only to lose them to smaller teams. With the 2-2 draw against Sassuolo, Milan has failed to beat all three newly promoted teams this season. Previously, they lost 1-2 to Cremonese and drew 2-2 with Pisa. Worse still, all three matches were at home, where Milan is theoretically strongest. They also conceded two goals in each of these games, plus two more in matches against Torino (3-2) and Parma (2-2). Dropping points against smaller teams, which make up the majority of the league, is the quickest path to failure in a long campaign.

Napoli suffers from “away game fear.” Their defeat at Udine marked their seventh loss across all competitions this season, all away from home. A team that only wins at home cannot dream of the Scudetto. AS Roma and Juventus aren’t much better. Roma is starting to fade, while Spalletti’s Juventus is only just beginning to regain stability with a win over Bologna.

A big advantage for Inter

What makes Inter different against smaller teams? While rivals struggle to find goal scorers, Inter has plenty of options. Beyond having extra forwards, Inter also benefits from scoring defenders. Their defense has contributed six goals this season (Dimarco, Bastoni, Carlos Augusto, Dumfries, Bisseck), a tally second only to Dortmund in Europe. This variety and unpredictability is their weapon to break down the deep defensive setups of smaller clubs.

Looking at their neighbors, Milan is desperate. Against Sassuolo, they had to rely on a brace from young defender Davide Bartesaghi. Milan’s attack is a disaster: Nkunku has yet to score, Leao and Pulisic are frequently injured, and Gimenez is like a “ghost.” Napoli was completely stuck, failing to register a single shot on target in their loss to Udinese. Napoli’s problems go beyond squad quality, but even their current squad is worrisome.

Without quality reinforcements in the winter transfer window, Milan and Napoli will struggle to stop an Inter side that may be fragile in big matches but remains highly effective and consistent in the long-term race.

The Fiorentina catastrophe

Fiorentina is heading toward Serie B. Their 1-2 loss to Verona, with a decisive goal in stoppage time, was their ninth defeat after 15 Serie A rounds. Worse still, they have yet to win any match. Six points from six draws leave Fiorentina anchored at the bottom of the table, four points behind the second-last team (Pisa) and eight points away from safety. No team in Serie A history since the introduction of 3 points per win (1994-95 season) has survived relegation after earning only 6 points in the first 15 matches.

Fiorentina dismissed coach Stefano Pioli on November 4, but his replacement Paolo Vanoli has been powerless. In eight games under Vanoli, Fiorentina has won only once (2-1 against Dynamo Kiev in the Conference League), drawn twice, and lost five. Vanoli is likely to leave soon as well, with Davide Ballardini a probable successor.

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