U23 Asian Championship: Scenario for Vietnam U23 to Secure a Quarterfinal Spot

After the first round of matches in Group A of the 2026 U23 Asian Championship, both Vietnam U23 and host Saudi Arabia U23 have 3 points each, while Jordan U23 and Kyrgyzstan U23 remain scoreless. With a +2 goal difference, Vietnam U23 currently leads the group, providing a strong psychological foundation for the upcoming matches.

In the second match, Vietnam U23 will take on Kyrgyzstan U23. The “Golden Star Warriors” are in a strong position to qualify early if they win again, provided Jordan U23 fails to beat Saudi Arabia U23 in the simultaneous match. According to the U23 Asian Championship rules, if two teams are tied on points, the head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker.

According to the tournament format, the top two teams from each group advance to the quarterfinals. Theoretically, 4 points is usually a safe threshold, but in groups with clear disparities, the points needed may be higher or lower depending on the scenario. In Group A, where Saudi Arabia U23 is considered dominant, all calculations must be approached cautiously.

The win against Jordan U23 puts Vietnam U23 in control of their destiny. This victory is crucial because both Vietnam and Jordan are seen as direct competitors for second place. Securing full points gives Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team the upper hand.

The next two matches against Kyrgyzstan U23 and Saudi Arabia U23 will decide who advances from Group A.

The safest scenario for Vietnam U23 is to secure at least one more win in the remaining two matches. Winning against Kyrgyzstan U23 or causing an upset against host Saudi Arabia U23 would give Kim Sang-sik’s squad a minimum of 6 points, almost guaranteeing a top-two finish in Group A regardless of other results.

If Vietnam U23 only manages two draws, earning 2 points from the last two matches, they will have a total of 5 points. This is still a favorable scenario to reach the quarterfinals, as Jordan and Kyrgyzstan must win all their remaining games and also compete on goal difference against a team that already holds an advantage.

A risky scenario arises if Vietnam U23 gains only 1 point in the final two matches, meaning one draw and one loss. In that case, Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team would have 4 points, which may not guarantee advancement. They would then have to await other group results and might be drawn into a tiebreaker based on goal difference, goals scored, or head-to-head records.

If Vietnam U23 draws with Kyrgyzstan U23, they still have a good chance to advance if Saudi Arabia U23 beats Jordan U23. In that case, Vietnam will have 4 points, leading Kyrgyzstan by 3 points and Jordan by 4 points.

If Vietnam U23 loses to Kyrgyzstan U23, the group situation becomes very complicated. The Vietnamese players must then defeat Saudi Arabia U23 in the final decisive match to keep their hopes alive (due to an inferior head-to-head record against Kyrgyzstan).

Regarding the schedule, the match against Kyrgyzstan U23 is pivotal. If Vietnam U23 can capitalize on the positive momentum from their opening win, they can aim for 3 points to secure a quarterfinal spot before facing host Saudi Arabia in the last round.

The final match against Saudi Arabia U23 is expected to be the toughest challenge in the group. However, since the hosts are likely to have already secured favorable points, Vietnam U23 playing cautiously and prioritizing risk control to aim for a draw is a completely viable strategy.

After the first round, Vietnam U23 holds a strong advantage, but to ensure a place in the quarterfinals, Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team needs to avoid defeat in both remaining matches or secure at least one more win.

The victory against Jordan U23 boosts Coach Kim Sang-sik’s squad’s confidence ahead of the decisive clash with Kyrgyzstan U23.

The match between Vietnam U23 and Kyrgyzstan U23 will take place at 9 PM on January 9th.