U23 Vietnam puts U23 Saudi Arabia in a tough spot

U23 Vietnam has become one of the most intriguing surprises at this year’s AFC U23 Asian Cup. Initially considered the weakest team in Group A before the tournament began, Coach Kim Sang-sik’s squad shocked all of Asia by securing two wins against U23 Jordan and U23 Kyrgyzstan.

After two matches, U23 Vietnam has earned a perfect 6 points but has yet to secure advancement. By gaining at least a draw against the hosts, the "Golden Star Warriors" will qualify for the U23 Asian Cup quarterfinals for the first time in history as group winners. However, facing a host team under pressure, Coach Kim Sang-sik’s players must remain extremely cautious to avoid an unfortunate outcome.

A defeat by three goals, combined with a Jordan victory in their concurrent match against Kyrgyzstan, would eliminate Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team at the group stage.

Conversely, the host U23 Saudi Arabia will likely be knocked out if they fail to win this match. This situation forces them to adopt an aggressive attacking approach to score goals and compete for a quarterfinal spot. This is an opportunity for U23 Vietnam to continue employing their trademark counter-attacking style against a stronger opponent.

So far in the tournament, despite high expectations, U23 Saudi Arabia has yet to show signs of a true powerhouse. Although dominating possession, their strikers have been very inefficient in front of goal during the last two games. In their narrow victory over Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia squandered many clear chances. Against Jordan, their defense was too vulnerable to counterattacks.

Under Italian coach Luigi Di Biagio, U23 Saudi Arabia plays a controlling, pressing, and proactive attacking style. Their strength is undeniable, but they also reveal several critical weaknesses, especially in defense. In the match against U23 Jordan, every counterattack posed a serious threat to Saudi Arabia. Had Jordan been more clinical, Saudi Arabia’s goals conceded would have exceeded three.

Another weakness to note is that U23 Saudi Arabia’s defenders often appear clumsy. They struggle in one-on-one situations, particularly against quick and skillful opponents.

A major issue for U23 Saudi Arabia is their limited ability to defend aerial balls. Despite their tall central defenders, they are often confused, slow, and inaccurate in judgment when dealing with aerial challenges.

These are areas that U23 Vietnam players can exploit.

Besides home advantage, head-to-head records favor Saudi Arabia. In their two U23 encounters in 2022 and 2023, Saudi Arabia defeated Vietnam 2-0 and 3-1 respectively.

U23 Vietnam has demonstrated solid defensive capabilities in this tournament. Currently, Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team boasts one of the best defenses in the competition. Based on their performance in the last two games, it is unlikely that U23 Vietnam will concede many goals against Saudi Arabia this time.

U23 Saudi Arabia is rated much stronger than U23 Jordan and U23 Kyrgyzstan. Saudi Arabia’s football is among Asia’s top five, on par with Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Australia. Theoretically, U23 Saudi Arabia still holds the advantage, but winning against Vietnam has never been more challenging. They will secure qualification if they beat Vietnam, even if Jordan wins against Kyrgyzstan, as Jordan would be disadvantaged in the three-way head-to-head standings (Jordan’s head-to-head goal difference in the group is -1).

If Saudi Arabia draws with Vietnam, they will need Kyrgyzstan to defeat Jordan to advance. In case of a loss to Vietnam, Saudi Arabia will be eliminated regardless of the Jordan-Kyrgyzstan match result.

U23 Vietnam will be eliminated if they lose to Saudi Arabia by scores of 0-3, 1-4, or by four or more goals, combined with a Jordan win over Kyrgyzstan.

A draw is enough for U23 Vietnam to reach the quarterfinals as Group A winners, where they will face the runner-up of Group B. Given the dominance of U23 Japan in that group, topping Group A would pit U23 Vietnam against either U23 Syria or U23 UAE, teams considered much more manageable opponents.

U23 Saudi Arabia will definitely watch Group B’s results closely and give their all in the match against U23 Vietnam. Saudi Arabia aims to progress deep into the tournament, even targeting the championship. Therefore, they want to avoid meeting U23 Japan early in the quarterfinals. This explains their determination to secure a convincing win over U23 Vietnam. It will be a very challenging match for U23 Vietnam.

The match between U23 Saudi Arabia and U23 Vietnam is essentially a final, where Saudi Arabia faces a huge challenge.