Real Madrid might face Benfica again immediately in the Champions League play-off round

Based on the branching format in the play-off stage, Real Madrid has a real chance of encountering Benfica again immediately following their turbulent loss at Estadio da Luz.

Under the new format, teams ranked 9th to 16th after the group stage are seeded, while those ranked 17th to 24th are unseeded. The seeded teams have the advantage of playing the second leg at home. Potential opponents for each team are pre-determined according to rankings.

In this setup, the teams placed 9th and 10th can only face one of the two teams ranked 23rd or 24th. This creates a highly ironic possibility: Real Madrid is ranked 9th, while Benfica just managed to secure the 24th spot, meaning the two clubs could face off again immediately in the play-offs.

This scenario has caused a stir because in the early hours of January 29, the two teams played one of the most insane matches of the season at the Estádio da Luz. Before kickoff, Benfica needed a big win to keep their hopes alive, while Real Madrid only required a draw to secure a direct spot in the round of 16. However, all calculations were quickly overturned by the home side’s sharp transitions and intense pace.

The statistics make it even harder to believe: Benfica held just 34% possession but managed 22 shots, 12 on target, and scored 4 goals. Real Madrid had 16 chances with 6 shots on goal. Mbappe opened the scoring and reignited hope for the visitors with a precise finish from Arda Guler’s assist in the 58th minute, narrowing the score to 2-3. At the same time, Real’s rivals all won their matches, causing their top 8 position to rapidly decline.

The climax came in stoppage time, where Real Madrid not only lost control of the game but also had two players sent off—Raul Asencio and Rodrygo received red cards at 90+2 and 90+7 minutes respectively. To cap off an unbelievable drama, at 90+8, goalkeeper Trubin joined the attack and scored a header to seal a 4-2 victory, allowing Jose Mourinho’s team to narrowly qualify for the play-offs.

Benfica finished the league stage in exactly 24th place, the last qualifying spot for the play-offs, with a goal difference of -2, just one better than Marseille. Meanwhile, Real Madrid dropped from a safe position to 9th due to this loss, losing their direct round of 16 spot and forcing them to play two additional play-off legs.

After the match, Mbappe did not shy awayfrom his comments: “We lacked consistency in our play, and that is something we need to fix. Having to go through the play-offs is painful, but Benfica deserved it. The final goal we conceded was truly shameful for us… We deserve to be where we are.”.

Now, just one draw on January 30 is enough to turn everything into the next chapter of this story: Real Madrid facing Benfica again in the play-offs, in a battle where neither pride nor the ticket to advance allows for any more mistakes.