After the draw for the Champions League 2025-26 round of 16: Which team has the highest chance of winning?

The draw for the Champions League 2025-26 round of 16 has been completed, officially mapping out the "path" to the final on May 30 at Puskás Aréna (Budapest). The Silver and Blue branches create a clear contrast: one is a "group of death" featuring numerous European giants, while the other is seen as an opening for new ambitions.

Expert View: A Final between Barcelona and Bayern Munich in Budapest

Here is the complete picture through the analytical lens of football experts from ESPN and The Guardian.

The Silver branch gathers several heavyweight contenders including PSG,Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atalanta, Liverpool and Galatasaray. Only one team from this group can advance to the final.

The biggest highlight is the rematch between Real Madrid and Manchester City, marking the fifth consecutive season these two clubs meet in the knockout stage—an unprecedented occurrence in the competition's history. Their head-to-head record is nearly even, but experts give Real Madrid a slight edge due to their Champions League pedigree and ability to neutralize opposing stars. The showdown between Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland is expected to be decisive, especially if Real can contain the Norwegian striker as they have in previous seasons.

In the clash between PSG and Chelsea, a sense of rivalry is also present, as Chelsea defeated PSG in last summer's FIFA Club World Cup final. However, considering squad depth and two-leg experience, PSG is still rated higher, even without goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma between the posts.

Bayern Munich is predicted to overcome Atalanta due to their overall strength and experience. Under Vincent Kompany, "The Gray Wolves" maintain stable form with firepower from Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala. Meanwhile, Liverpool, despite losing to Galatasaray in the qualifying round, is still assessed to have the composure to overcome the challenge in Istanbul.

The Blue branch consists of Barcelona, Newcastle United, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting CP, Atletico Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur.

Arsenal—currently leading the Premier League and topping their Champions League group—is considered to have a significant advantage due to playing the second leg at home in every round (if they advance). Their round of 16 opponent is Bayer Leverkusen.

Barcelona is seen as having a "clear path" against Newcastle, especially having already won 2-1 at St James' Park and holding the advantage of the return leg at Camp Nou. If they advance, they could face Atletico Madrid or Tottenham—two teams rated lower in terms of consistency.

The phenomenon Bodø/Glimt remains an intriguing wildcard. The Norwegian representative previously shocked by defeating Man City and Atletico in the group stage, but overall is still viewed as the weakest team in the Blue branch.

A scenario frequently mentioned by experts: Barcelona and Arsenal will meet in the Blue branch semifinal, while the Silver branch could witness Bayern Munich facing Real Madrid. According to analysis, in the Blue branch, a slight advantage leans towards the La Liga side if Arsenal is distracted by the Premier League title race. Therefore, a final between Barcelona and Bayern Munich in Budapest is not a far-fetched vision.

Opta Supercomputer: Arsenal Has the Highest Chance of Winning

While experts place faith in pedigree and tradition, the Opta supercomputer presents a different picture after 10,000 simulations.

Arsenal: 27.4% chance of winning (highest);Bayern Munich: 14.3%;Liverpool: 12.8%;Manchester City: 10.8%;Barcelona: 7.7%;Chelsea: 6.9%;Newcastle United: 4.7%;Paris Saint-Germain: 4.6%;Real Madrid: 2.8%;Atletico Madrid: 2%;Tottenham Hotspur: 1.2%;Bodø/Glimt: 0.4%;Galatasaray: 0.2%.

According to Opta's analysis, Arsenal leads due to a favorable draw and home advantage in the knockout rounds. Meanwhile, the Silver branch forces the giants to "eliminate each other," significantly reducing the championship probability of Real, Man City, or PSG.

Notably, despite holding 15 European Cup titles, Real Madrid ranks only 9th in the simulated chance of winning. Conversely, Newcastle is even rated higher than both Real and PSG—a major surprise from the statistical data.

In the heavyweight clash of Real vs Man City, Opta gives Man City a 64.3% chance of advancing. Liverpool is also granted an 82.3% probability of overcoming Galatasaray despite losing 0-1 in the group stage. Meanwhile, PSG has only a 4.6% chance of defending their title.