Premier League: 10 factors determining the title race

Arsenal and Manchester City are currently neck and neck in the Premier League title race, with five weeks remaining in the season. Below are the key factors that will decide which team will be crowned champions.

1. Manchester City's motivation to win the treble

After an unstable period earlier in the season, Manchester City has surprisingly returned with strong form. Now, they face the opportunity to win the treble (Premier League, FA Cup, and Carabao Cup).

Their victory over Arsenal in the League Cup final last month secured their first trophy and provided a massive morale boost for Manchester City in the final stages of the season.

2. Arsenal's favorable fixture schedule

Arsenal genuinely has a more favorable run-in schedule than Manchester City, as all their remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table. Manchester City has some difficult away fixtures coming up, with trips to Everton and Bournemouth considered potentially tricky. Arsenal could capitalize if Manchester City slips up.

3. Pressure in the race

Arsenal has stumbled at crucial moments. "The Gunners" could have temporarily led by 12 points if they had defeated Bournemouth on April 11th. Pressure has weighed on Arsenal throughout the season, while Manchester City is entirely different. Manchester City enters this final phase with the advantage of a relaxed, unburdened mindset, and this could make a significant difference.

4. Arteta needs to choose the right striker

In the defeat to Manchester City, Arsenal had two forwards: Kai Havertz and Viktor Gyokeres. "The Gunners" looked like a more complete team with Havertz in the number 9 role, thanks to the German player's ability to draw defenders and create space for teammates. The only issue is that Havertz is not a prolific scorer and missed three chances against Manchester City.

Meanwhile, Gyokeres is a natural goal-scorer, evidenced by his 18 goals across all competitions. However, the Swedish striker lacks ball control and link-up play, areas where Havertz excels. The decision of who to select for each match will determine Arsenal's cup-winning potential.

5. The Cherki factor

Rayan Cherki is Manchester City's creative player this season with 4 goals and 10 assists. Every championship-winning team needs a player like Cherki. The last time Manchester City won the Premier League, Phil Foden performed excellently in big matches and shone in crucial moments. That responsibility now falls on Cherki, who scored a beautiful opening goal in the victory over Arsenal.

6. Odegaard's return

In the match against Manchester City, Martin Odegaard made a strong impact both with and without the ball, connecting Arsenal's creative play while leading the off-the-ball pressing to trouble the opponent.

This was only his third start in the past three months. It was also just his fourth start this season alongside Eberechi Eze. If Odegaard and Eze can start regularly, it would be a major boost for Arsenal's attack.

7. Does Arsenal's hope depend on Saka?

Saka has not yet returned due to injury. If this player returns to play, he could be a crucial factor helping Arsenal compete for the title.

Noni Madueke's lack of form and fitness has shown a gap in quality between him and Saka. Madueke has only 2 Premier League goals after 22 appearances. The last time Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Kai Havertz all started for Arsenal was on December 21, 2024. At that time, Arsenal defeated Crystal Palace 5-1 away. Now, they need this "triplet" to return in top form.

8. What if Rodri is absent for City?

Rodri had to limp off the pitch in the 88th minute of the match against Arsenal. Pep Guardiola revealed in a press conference that the Spanish midfielder had a groin issue.

Any harm to Rodri would affect Manchester City's title hopes. He is the player who makes everyone around him operate at full capacity. Without him, Manchester City's cohesion both with and without the ball would be shaken. If Rodri misses upcoming matches, it would be a difficult problem for Manchester City.

9. Gabriel fortunate to continue playing

Arsenal could have fallen into crisis if defender Gabriel received a red card after the headbutt incident with Haaland. Fortunately, he was not suspended and can still play in matches against Newcastle, Fulham, and West Ham. With Timber and Calafiori still injured, Gabriel's presence is crucial for Arsenal's defense.

10. Pep Guardiola's future

The final factor is Pep's uncertain future. If Pep leaves Manchester City, it is highly likely the Spanish coach would want to depart Etihad Stadium in glory. Winning the Premier League title would be the perfect ending for Pep with Manchester City.