Japan envies! South Korea drops to 3rd but still has a 94% chance of advancing, with incredible luck: a 50% probability of facing Egypt

During the last round of Group A at the World Cup, which ended on June 25 Beijing time, South Korea's men's team faced South Africa. Having required just a draw to guarantee a spot in the next round, they unexpectedly lost 0-1, falling to their second straight loss after their initial victory. As a result, they missed out on the top two positions in the group, and their fate in the knockout phase remains uncertain until the outcomes of the other nine groups are determined.

Nevertheless, despite missing the top two spots in the group, South Korea's three points and a goal difference of -1 still give them a certain advantage in the competition among the 12 third-place teams.

According to a well-known foreign media outlet,The Athletic updated the probability of advancing: after ranking third in their group, South Korea still has a 94% chance of progressing, with only a 6% chance of elimination.

Based on The Athletic's simulation probabilities,If South Korea advances, the probability of facing Egypt in the knockout stage is 55%, Belgium 19%, Iran 15%, and Germany 5%.

In other words, South Korea has more than a 50% chance of meeting Egypt in the round of 16, which would be an ideal opponent for them. After all, Egypt is arguably the weakest potential group winner among the 12 groups.

Seeing South Korea's incredible luck, Japan's men's team must be quite envious. Although Japan has basically secured a top-two finish in their group to advance, whether they finish first or second, they will face the top two from Group C, meaning their opponent can only be either Brazil or Morocco.

Having a better group stage record than South Korea but facing a much tougher opponent in the first knockout round—this truly leaves Japan's men's team feeling somewhat helpless.