Super League relegation, is 28 points enough?

Reporter Chen Yong reports On October 18, the 28th round of the Chinese Super League is the penultimate round, and the last three rounds, for the relegation team, every point is very important, and it may determine the final "life and death". On October 20, Shenzhen Xinpeng City played against Meizhou Hakka, staged the "Guangdong Derby", which is the most concerned relegation key battle in this round, affecting the nerves of the seven relegation teams in theory, especially the fourth-to-last Qingdao Manatee, which is even more closely watched.

At present, with three rounds left in the league, the bottom three teams are facing each other as follows: Shenzhen Xinpeng City, home against Meizhou Hakka, away against Shanghai Shenhua, home against Nantong Zhiyun; Meizhou Hakka, away against Shenzhen Xinpeng City, home against Wuhan Three Towns, away against Shandong Taishan; Nantong Zhiyun, away against Cangzhou Male Lion, home against Beijing Guoan, away against Shenzhen Xinpeng City.

Among these three teams, the highest score that Nantong Zhiyun can theoretically get is 30 points, and Shenzhen Xinpeng City and Meizhou Hakka cannot exceed 30 points at the same time, so Wuhan Three Towns has been determined to be relegated after getting 31 points.

This is the most ideal result, but the actual result is likely to be lower than this expectation - Nantong Zhiyun will play away to Cangzhou Male Lion in this round, who are also at risk of relegation, but they look to win more at home; The opponent of Shenzhen Xinpeng City in the next round is Shanghai Shenhua, which is a championship team and will inevitably fight to the death; Meizhou Hakka's last round away against Shandong Taishan is also not easy.

Objectively speaking, the final relegation line may not even reach 30 points, and 29 or even 28 points are more likely. Among them, the situation of 28 points relegation is very simple, and two conditions need to be met: first, Nantong Zhiyun cannot get two wins, one draw or three consecutive wins, which is very likely to happen; Second, Shenzhen Xinpeng City and Meizhou Hakka split the winners and losers, if Meizhou Hakka loses, they can't win two in a row. If Shenzhen Xinpeng City loses and then loses again, this is actually very likely.

In fact, 27 points of relegation is not a fantasy. In addition, the possibility of comparing each other's results with the same points is not ruled out.

To sum up, the primary goal of each team's relegation is naturally 31 points or 30 points, so the probability of relegation is more than 99%; followed by 29 points, with a relegation chance of more than 80%; Then there are 28 points, and the probability of relegation is also about 50%.

Let's take a look at the three teams at the bottom of the list: Nantong Zhiyun must get at least two wins and one draw to have a certain possibility, and if you win three in a row, there is a high probability of relegation; Shenzhen Xinpeng City can be relegated with two wins, and if you win and draw one, you need to beat Meizhou Hakka, so you have a greater hope; Meizhou Hakka can win at least two wins, one win and one draw will only have 27 points, unless the win is against Shenzhen Xinpeng City, otherwise, there is little hope.

Objectively analyzing the situation of relegation, the goal of these three teams is naturally to keep the other two teams behind.

Qingdao Manatee with 26 points, in fact, there is still a lot of relegation risk, theoretically, they need to win a game to basically determine relegation, they play Cangzhou male lion in the final round, when the opponent is likely to have been relegated in advance, and it is not small to get three points. But if all hope is pressed in the last round, variables can happen at any time, so they need to try to get points in the 28th and 29th rounds, but these two rounds of Qingdao Manatee are away against Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Jinmen Tigers, which is not easy.

27 points of Changchun Yatai won a basic relegation, their match is actually the most optimistic, home against Qingdao West Coast, away against Henan team, the last round of home against Zhejiang team, the opponent's strength is not too strong, three games only need to win three points, not difficult.

As for the two teams with 28 points, Cangzhou Male Lion and Qingdao West Coast, they also only need a win or even a draw to avoid relegation, even if they do nothing, there is a possibility of direct relegation. Cangzhou male lion's next games are at home against Nantong Zhiyun, at home against Shanghai Port, and away against Qingdao Manatee; Qingdao West Coast is away against Changchun Yatai, home against Chengdu Rongcheng, and away against Wuhan Three Towns. Normally, they are expected to get points.