The ATP 500 China Open is ready to launch. Out of the eight seeds, four are current top 10 players: Sinner, Zverev, De Minaur, and Musetti. There are also three ex-top 10 players: Khachanov, Rublev, and Medvedev. This roster is notably more powerful than the Tokyo 500 event starting simultaneously, where the eight seeds are Alcaraz, Fritz, Rune, Ruud, Makhachev, Auger-Aliassime, Shapovalov, and Tiafoe, with only Alcaraz and Fritz in the top 10.

Seeds for the China Open

Draw for the first quarter

Top seed Sinner faces Cilic in the opening round.Cilic has climbed back into the top 100 from over 700, currently ranked 97. However, at 36 years old, he is unlikely to challenge Sinner effectively. Still, Cilic’s unusual “three-stage” serving routine is quite peculiar.

Zhang Zhizhen has a favorable first-round draw against a qualifier, potentially one of Goffin, Altmaier, Carreno, or Mannarino. Hopefully, he meets the veteran Mannarino.

In the quarterfinals, Sinner may face the fifth seed Khachanov.

Draw for the second quarter

Bublik has tough luck, drawing third seed De Minaur in the first round. They met twice this year in Miami and Washington, with Bublik losing both times. De Minaur performed well at the Laver Cup, winning two singles and one doubles match.

Shang Juncheng will face a qualifier in the first round. Among Goffin, Altmaier, Carreno, and Mannarino, who do you think Shang can beat?

The quarterfinal in this section will likely be De Minaur versus Mensek. The only upset might be Shang Juncheng defeating Mensek to reach the last eight.

Draw for the third quarter

Rublev faces Cobolli in the first round.Cobolli made his debut at the Laver Cup with average form. It’s uncertain if he can overcome Rublev. Cobolli did defeat Rublev in a tight finish to win the Hamburg 500 this year. Overall, Rublev’s chances to break through this quarter are slim.

Fourth seed Musetti meets Perkari in the first roundwith a head-to-head record of 3-0. Musetti feels confident against this big server.

Bublik is the most unpredictable factor in the third quarter.He faces a qualifier in the first round. Just yesterday, Bublik won the Hangzhou Open by beating Royer 7-6(4), 7-6(4), a scoreline that can frustrate any opponent. This is Bublik’s fourth tour title this season. He will have at least two days’ rest. He might either exit early due to incomplete recovery or keep fighting through to the quarterfinals. A second-round match against Musetti would be very exciting.

Draw for the fourth quarter

Two years ago, it would have been certain that Medvedev (8) and Zverev (2) would meet in the quarterfinals. But with Medvedev’s current form, he can’t even beat Wu Yibing and is uncertain against Norrie.

Zverev’s first-round match against Sonego should be manageable. However, he lost both singles matches at the Laver Cup, which may affect his confidence. The second round against Moutet or Taro will also be challenging.

Overall, whether Medvedev advances to the quarterfinals depends largely on others’ performances, while Zverev’s progress hinges entirely on his own play. The chance that both reach the last eight is slim. It’s been a long time since these two have faced each other; looking forward to it.

The Beijing event runs from September 25 to October 1. Get ready emotionally to enjoy the matches!

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