Which players benefit significantly from Alcaraz’s withdrawal from the Shanghai Masters?

Alcaraz, carrying an injury, claimed the Tokyo 500 title but then promptly withdrew from this year’s Shanghai Masters because of an ankle issue. It’s likely he applied for the withdrawal before the final, as soon as the Tokyo final concluded, the number one seed position was taken over by French player Moutet.

In the Tokyo final, Fritz’s condition looked worrisome due to a possible leg injury, casting doubts on whether he might withdraw.

As the top seed, Alcaraz’s withdrawal announced just one day before the main draw meant the draw could not be altered, significantly affecting its fairness. The only option was to make the smallest change by promoting the 33rd seed to the top spot.

This unexpected change brought varying degrees of advantage to some players, while others may have been somewhat disadvantaged.

1.French player Moutetdirectly benefits from a first-round bye, advancing straight to the second round. Although Moutet, as the 33rd seed, was likely to reach the second round anyway, playing one less match helps him conserve energy for the next round.

2. For the potential second-round opponents of the top seedLernachev / Kačmanovićthis is also favorable. They were originally set to face Alcaraz in the second round, making their chances of advancing slim. Now, facing Moutet, ranked 37th with a smaller ranking gap, they have a better shot at reaching the third round.

For fans, the anticipated clash between the young rising star Lernachev and Alcaraz is now off the table.

3. For other players in the 1/8 section of the draw, such as the 30th seedNorriethis is also beneficial, as he now has a better chance to reach the fourth round.

4. The 16th seedMedvedevis among the most direct beneficiaries of Alcaraz’s withdrawal. If he advances smoothly to the fourth round without facing Alcaraz, his chances of reaching the quarterfinals increase significantly. Although he might meet Lernachev again in the fourth round, this is still a better scenario than facing Alcaraz.

5. Originally,the 7th seed Deminalwas set to face top seed Alcaraz, potentially in the quarterfinals. Now, Deminal is the highest seed in the quarterfinal section, dramatically boosting his chances of reaching the semifinals.

6. The top eight seeds in the 2/4 section of the draw areZverev (3) and Musetti (8)with other contenders like Lehecka (15), Alcaraz (12), and Menšík (17). Whoever makes it to the semifinals from this section won’t face top seed Alcaraz, greatly improving their chances of reaching the final.

In summary, all players in the top half of the draw stand to gain from Alcaraz’s withdrawal.

Waiting to enter on the first day of the Shanghai Masters

As for players in the bottom half, Alcaraz’s withdrawal has little impact, except that whoever reaches the final won’t face him.

So, who will be the finalist from the bottom half — Djokovic or Sinner?

The tournament is about to begin, and the answer will only be revealed in the end.

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