How could Jannik Sinner benefit from Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal from the 2025 Shanghai Masters?
Carlos Alcaraz has chosen to pull out of the 2025 Shanghai Masters. This widens the championship opportunity for Jannik Sinner significantly and beyond just a possibility.
What advantages might Jannik Sinner gain at the 2025 Shanghai Masters?
Alcaraz’s withdrawal is undoubtedly a major setback for this Masters 1000 event, but the defending champion Jannik Sinner—currently ranked second worldwide—will still take part after completing his China Open run in Beijing.
The story now isn’t just about Alcaraz’s absence but also directly concerns the battle for the world No. 1 ranking between these two top ATP stars.
Twelve months ago, Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the China Open final. That means this week, Alcaraz needs to defend 500 points, while Sinner must defend 330 points on the ATP rankings.
Jannik Sinner has won 19 consecutive matches against Top 10 players, except Carlos Alcaraz
Although Alcaraz won’t return to Beijing to defend his title, his Tokyo championship secured the full 500 points, keeping his total at 11,540. Meanwhile, Sinner, by reaching the China Open final once again, successfully defended 330 points, raising his official ATP Live Ranking to 10,780.
If Sinner defeats Learner Tien in the final, his points will rise to 10,950, just 590 points behind Alcaraz. If he loses, Sinner will remain at 10,780 points, increasing the gap to 760 points.
At the 2024 Shanghai Masters, Alcaraz was stopped in the quarterfinals after an unexpected loss to Tomas Machac. That result earned him 200 points, but since he cannot compete this year, those points will be deducted, reducing his total to 11,340 after the ATP rankings update.
However, the good news for the 22-year-old is that he is still guaranteed to keep the world No. 1 ranking without playing, as Sinner enters the tournament as the defending champion.
Last year, Sinner defeated Novak Djokovic to win Shanghai, earning 1,000 points. Therefore, to avoid losing points, the Italian must successfully defend his title. If he finishes second, he will earn 650 points, losing 350 points—150 more than Alcaraz.
This means Sinner’s only chance to narrow the gap with Alcaraz is to win both the China Open and Shanghai Masters in consecutive weeks. Then, Sinner would hold 10,950 points after Shanghai, just 390 points behind Alcaraz.
On the other hand, if Sinner fails to win both titles, especially in Shanghai, he will lose points relative to his rival, further strengthening Alcaraz’s chances of ending the 2025 season as world No. 1.
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