Data Analysis: Djokovic’s dominance at the top of tennis is powered by his serve, not his return game.

I just came across an ATP data analysis piece that, using stats and comparative analysis, explains Djokovic’s success through his serve. A notable figure is that by the 2025 Shanghai Masters kickoff, Djokovic’s service game win percentage stood at 88.3%.

Djokovic has long been regarded as one of the best returners in tennis history. Although his return game remains impressive, his sustained place at the top of the sport is actually due to his steadily improving serving ability.

Djokovic’s former coach, Ivanisevic, has repeatedly stated that Djokovic’s serving skills are underrated. Ivanisevic played a crucial role in enhancing Djokovic’s serve technique.

Over the past 18 years, Djokovic finished the ATP year-end rankings in the top three for 15 seasons, including a record eight times as year-end world number one. Throughout his career, he has only twice surpassed this season’s service game win rate of 88.3%, indicating his current serving level remains among the very best in his career.

Novak Djokovic’s serving statistics

Djokovic’s highest service game win rate in a single season was in 2015, when he ranked fifth on the ATP Tour with 89.5%. In 2023, he was second with 88.4%, just behind Tsitsipas; in 2025, Djokovic ranked fourth with 88.3%, trailing only Sinner (91.3%), Fritz (90%), and Opelka (88.7%).

As Djokovic prepares for the Rolex Shanghai Masters at age 38, his service game win rate (88.3%) significantly exceeds his career average (86.1%). Additionally, his first serve success rate (66.6% vs. 64.9%) and first serve points won (76.4% vs. 74.2%) are above his career averages, while his second serve points won remain roughly equal (55.3% vs. 55.5%).

Notably, three of the six seasons where Djokovic ranked highest in service game win rate began in 2022.

Djokovic’s best season serving performance statistics table

Djokovic’s serving advantage is not limited to a single metric. Before 2021, he never reached a first serve points won rate of 76% or higher in a single season; from 2022 to 2025, he achieved or exceeded this mark for four consecutive seasons. Moreover, his career average aces per match is 5.5, which rose to 8.4 in the 2025 season.

Fritz commented on Djokovic, noting that he combines his serve with baseline skills to create a challenging situation for opponents.

“I think what makes him tough is that his serve is high quality and his second serve is very aggressive. Even if you try to exploit his serve, his return and baseline game leave you no options. His serve is backed by strong follow-up skills, so it’s hard to pressure him the way he pressures you with his returns.”

Fritz’s most recent match against Djokovic was the 2025 US Open quarterfinal, where he again lost, continuing his losing streak.

Between 2010 and 2021, whenever Djokovic appeared in the ATP return game win rate rankings, he always placed in the top three; however, during these 12 years, his service game win rate ranking never surpassed his return game ranking. In 2022, he ranked fourth in both categories; in 2023, his service game win rate ranked second, three places higher than his return game ranking at fifth; by 2025, this gap widened to six places (fourth in service games, tenth in return games).

Serving is one of the most critical skills in men’s tennis. Even players like Sinner and Alcaraz are continually improving their serves. Remarkably, Djokovic, nearing the end of his career, is still enhancing his serving technique. When asked by the media about his secret to maintaining his level, he has repeatedly answered: “constant improvement.” He believes that small incremental improvements add up over time.

Currently, Djokovic’s return game remains highly threatening, but it is his serve that truly keeps him at the pinnacle of the tennis world.

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