99% Alcaraz will finish 2025 as the world No. 1

Jannik Sinner's loss at the 2025 Shanghai Masters has solidified Carlos Alcaraz's hold on the top spot in the tennis world rankings.

Carlos Alcaraz is closer than ever to clinching the title of world No. 1 for the 2025 season after Jannik Sinner withdrew in the third round of the Shanghai Masters last night, October 5th, Vietnam time. The gap between the two players now stands at 2,540 points — a substantial advantage for the Spaniard over his main rival.

Alcaraz was unable to participate in Shanghai due to an ankle injury sustained at the 2025 ATP 500 Japan Open. This was seen as a golden opportunity for Sinner, who had just won in Beijing, to close the gap and continue competing for the year-end No. 1 title for the second consecutive year. However, the Italian player’s hopes were dashed after a disappointing loss to Tallon Griekspoor.

Sinner, the tournament’s second seed, fought hard but suffered an injury and retired while trailing 6-7, 7-5, 3-2 after 2 hours and 36 minutes of intense play. This was a major setback for the Italian, who had taken a risk by entering the Shanghai Masters after his victory in Beijing to defend valuable points as the defending champion.

The match between Sinner and Griekspoor was played under tough and stressful conditions. Although Sinner scored more points, he wasted six break-point opportunities in the second set, missing the chance to close out the match earlier. Meanwhile, Griekspoor showed resilience at critical moments, saving all break points he faced and breaking his opponent’s serve in the deciding game to level the match at 1-1.

In the final set, Sinner started strong with two successful service games but his physical condition rapidly declined. Pain in his right leg limited his mobility, leading to a service break at 2-2. The Italian player then had to retire due to cramps, conceding the victory to his Dutch opponent.

To overturn the situation, Sinner must win all three remaining tournaments — Vienna, Paris Masters, and ATP Finals — a nearly impossible task. Meanwhile, Alcaraz only needs solid results in Paris and Turin to officially end 2025 as the tennis world No. 1.

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