Sinner withdrew in Shanghai, who benefits from this?

Jannik Sinner's exit in the third round of the Shanghai Masters has created an opportunity for a fresh Masters 1000 winner this season.

With world No.1 Carlos Alcaraz absent and world No.2 Sinner forced to retire, the Shanghai tournament has become a golden chance for the remaining stars, as only four Top 10 players remain competing in the round of 32.

Alcaraz’s last-minute withdrawal left a big gap in the top half of the draw. His spot was taken by Corentin Moutet (seeded 33), who was then eliminated in the first round by Learner Tien. Meanwhile, Sinner, expected to lead the bottom half, had to retire due to cramps while leading 6-7, 7-5, 3-2 against Tallon Griekspoor.

Sinner’s defeat has opened up chances for other contenders, including Holger Rune (seeded 10), who is now seen as the top candidate in the bottom half, potentially reaching the semifinals without facing any Top 25 player.

This year’s event also sees no reigning Masters 1000 champions from the 2025 season remaining: Alcaraz and Jack Draper did not attend Shanghai, while Jakub Mensik and Ben Shelton were knocked out in the first round. World No.4 Taylor Fritz also exited early in round two after losing to French player Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

The biggest beneficiary of these developments could be Novak Djokovic (seeded 4), who is making a comeback after focusing primarily on Grand Slams for a long period. The 24-time Grand Slam winner reached the semifinals at Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the US Open this season but has yet to secure a Masters 1000 title since the 2024 Paris Masters.

In Shanghai, Djokovic will face Jaume Munar in the next round, and if victorious, he will play against either Gabriel Diallo (seeded 31) or Zizou Bergs. The winner from this section is likely to meet Holger Rune in the semifinals to compete for a spot in the final.

In the top half, world No.3 Alexander Zverev faces a challenging path, potentially encountering Denis Shapovalov or Jiri Lehecka in the round of 16, followed by a possible quarterfinal clash with Lorenzo Musetti (seeded 8) or Felix Auger-Aliassime (seeded 12). The winner here will vie for a place in the final against a strong quarterfinal contender from the upper section, such as Alex de Minaur (seeded 7), Daniil Medvedev (seeded 16), or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (seeded 18).